On the last day of March, Xiaomi found itself at the center of a storm.
A severe car accident and a failed PR statement have plunged Xiaomi into its most serious public relations crisis since entering the automotive industry.
Lei Jun's response briefly calmed the incident, but the attention to smart driving safety issues has only just begun.
Since the second half of 2023, intelligent driving has developed rapidly. In February this year, BYD initiated the "Intelligent Driving Equality" campaign, marking the beginning of a rapid surge in the installation of intelligent driving systems in vehicles.
The commercialization of new technologies is destined to be accompanied by twists and turns. Rather than viewing Xiaomi as an isolated incident, it is more accurate to see it as a concentrated eruption of past anxieties about intelligent driving safety.
The rapidly advancing domestic new energy sector is facing increasing scrutiny over safety concerns, with pressure and skepticism closely following.
Tesla falls to sixth place.
Generally speaking, the first quarter is a slack season for vehicle manufacturers' sales, with most companies experiencing a significant decline in sales. Starting from March, the sales of new energy vehicle manufacturers begin to rise month by month.
Last year's trade-in policy has been extended to this year. In March, various regions gradually introduced policies to further support and encourage automobile consumption. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued documents stating that they would increase support for the trade-in of consumer goods and extend the automobile consumption chain. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also launched the application for the recommended directory of new energy vehicles for rural areas in March. By the end of March, the total number of trade-in applications for automobiles nationwide exceeded 1.5 million.
The policy benefits ultimately lead to an increase in sales performance.
According to year-on-year data, the majority of the 14 automakers that have disclosed sales data showed month-on-month growth; except for Seres, all others achieved year-on-year growth.
On average, the average sales volume reached 71,599 units, an increase of about 20,000 units year-on-year. There has also been a significant increase compared to January and February. According to the median calculation, the median vehicle sales volume reached 35,378 units, which is also an increase of more than 6,000 units over the same period.
The furious pace of domestic car companies has already pushed Tesla to the middle of the pack. According to data released by Tesla, its sales volume in China in the first quarter was 137,200 units, which has been surpassed by Geely, SAIC, Changan, and Chery in terms of total volume. With an average monthly sales volume of 46,000 units, it is soon to be overtaken by companies such as Li Auto, XPeng, and Zero Run.
Currently, the number of automakers reporting sales figures has stabilized at around 13-14, and in the future, perhaps 1-2 more may beed. The list of "surviving" automakers has been largely finalized.
Due to BYD's high sales volume, the average number is pulled up, therefore, the medianIf it remains consistently below the median and the deviation is too high, then it faces significant elimination pressure. Currently, BAIC and NIO may be under the greatest pressure. Note: There seems to be a missing part in the original Chinese text (indicated by ""), which makes the sentence incomplete for direct translation. The provided translation reflects the context as accurately as possible with the given information.
19 major brands achieve over 10,000 in monthly sales
According to brand calculations, 25 brands announced their sales in March. Although the overall sales cannot be compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the overall momentum of the brands is strong.
Among the 25 brands, 19 brands have monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units, just two brands fewer than the peak in December, and roughly the same as in October and November last year. This month, there are 7 brands with monthly sales surpassing 30,000 units, the same number as in September last year.
A total of 25 brands have achieved month-on-month growth, with only Seres showing a decline. Looking at the year-on-year data, the Matthew Effect continues to prevail. Brands with monthly sales exceeding 30,000 may see changes in ranking, but they are mostly familiar faces, and both year-on-year and month-on-month growth are maintained. Geely Galaxy, Leap Motor, and Xpeng are the most impressive brands, achieving exponential growth.
Brands with lower monthly sales volumes are less likely to experience higher year-over-year growth rates. For example, Great Wall Ora, NIO, and BYD Yinger have all seen a certain degree of sales decline compared to the same period last year.
The median sales of 25 brands reached 14,268 units, and except for premium brands, those with monthly sales still unable to surpass 10,000 units may face continuous downward pressure.
At the beginning of this year, 16 car manufacturers or brands announced their sales targets. Since Huawei's Harmony OS did not disclose its sales figures, the completion status of 15 companies' targets can be observed this month.
Sales in the first quarter are usually not very impressive, so most car companies tend to fall behind schedule. XPeng is the most outstanding performer, having achieved 27% of its target in three months, showing a very optimistic progress.
In addition to Xiaopeng, the progress of Geely and Xiaomi has also exceeded 20%; Changan, BYD, and ZeroMotorcycles are also showing very optimistic progress. In comparison, Zhiyu, Nio, GAC Aion, and Changan AVATR are lagging behind, putting tremendous pressure on them in the later stages.
Frequent safety issues in autonomous driving
The biggest hotspot in March was undoubtedly autonomous driving.
The wave of intelligent driving has surged since the second half of 2023, with Huawei and Xpeng consistently leading the pack in this arena. Particularly, Huawei, with its intelligent driving and smart cockpit systems, coupled with its high-end brand image, has demonstrated formidable competitiveness.
However, the momentum of the pursuers is becoming increasingly fierce.
BYD played the "smart driving equality" card in February. Wang Chuanfu announced at the intelligent strategy launch conference that all models of BYD will be equipped with the "Heavenly Eye" advanced smart driving system, standard on all models priced over 100,000 yuan, and most models under 100,000 yuan will also be equipped. It was as if smart driving had suddenly become "dirt cheap."
In March, Ideal became a new disruptor. Ideal has open-sourced its self-developed car operating system "Ideal Star Ring OS." According to its introduction, since starting the OS development in 2021, Ideal Auto has built a "three-horizontal three-vertical" technology matrix: horizontally covering intelligent driving, vehicle control, and smart cockpits.
Intelligent driving is rapidly advancing towards lower costs and comprehensive coverage. In this process, issues regarding the safety of intelligent driving have begun to emerge frequently.
In January, a video of an accident involving the Smart S7 in autonomous driving mode gained attention online. In March, HarmonyOS responded, emphasizing that the claim of "autonomous driving malfunction" was not true.
In February, a fire incident occurred in the M9 model in Changsha, Hunan. Hongmeng responded, stating that the vehicle's battery pack did not catch fire or burn.
In March, on the Qingyin Expressway, a Zeekr 7X suddenly crashed into the guardrail after its autonomous driving was activated. Zeekr attributed the incident to the driver retrieving glasses, which caused a loss of steering control.
The same month, a Zeekr 009 MPV lost control while driving at high speed, consecutively hit the metal guardrail in the middle of the road, and quickly caught fire. The official statement from Zeekr attributed the cause of the fire to "continuous collisions," but did not clarify whether there were any defects in the battery system.
By the end of March, a Xiaomi SU7 caught fire after a collision on the De-Shang Expressway in the Zongyang section of Anhui, resulting in three fatalities. The successive issues with mainstream brands have pushed the safety concerns of intelligent driving into the spotlight.
For a long time, safety accidents have been occurring, but they have been overshadowed by the rapid pace of development. Now, with the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, safety issues are receiving more and more attention, and safety incidents will be further amplified, making the safety guarantees of car manufacturers truly match their promotions.
At the beginning of the month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology required that if drivers do not use the combined driving assistance function in a standardized manner, the system should have restrictions such as prohibiting the activation of the corresponding functions. In addition, the two departments issued a requirement that if a vehicle with a combined driving assistance system causes an accident resulting in personal injury or death, the accident information should be submitted within 24 hours.
A series of accidents indicate that the safety issues of autonomous driving need a solution, even from the policy side, with sufficient regulations on the promotion of autonomous driving technology and driving standards.
Going overseas remains the main task for car companies.
This year, BYD has become the most impressive company. In March, its overseas sales reached 72,407 units, historically surpassing the 70,000-unit mark for the first time. These three months, BYD has been setting new historical records every month.
Besides BYD, Chery and SAIC are still in the first tier of car companies going overseas. Both of their exports exceeded 80,000 units. Geely and Great Wall, on the other hand, are mediocre, with sales of less than 40,000 units.
In March, automakers continued to make intensive moves overseas. BYD officially entered the Kazakhstan market, with the first batch of models launched including the flagship pure electric sedan Han EV, Song PLUS EV, and DM-i. So far, BYD has entered three countries in Central Asia. The Denza D9 model under BYD was launched in Malaysia.
Chery has launched four new models, including the OMODA 5 and JAECOO 7, in the Czech Republic. The company will work with local agents to build a sales and service network, with plans to establish nearly 30 sales outlets in the Czech Republic by the end of 2025.
At SAIC, the overseas version of its IM6 was launched in Thailand under the Zeekr brand. Note: There seems to be a minor discrepancy in the original Chinese sentence where it mentions "" (Zeekr) but refers to the model as "IM6," which is typically associated with SAIC Motor's another subsidiary, MG. However, I've translated it directly as per your instruction.
In terms of new forces, although they are retreating in the domestic market, NIO has not stopped its overseas steps. On March 20th, NIO signed four important agreements with local suppliers and financial institutions in Thailand, obtaining a credit of 100 billion baht (about 21.5 billion yuan).
Xpeng announced its entry into the Polish, Swiss, Czech, and Slovak markets, with its models Xpeng P7, Xpeng G9, and Xpeng G6 scheduled to go on sale in the second quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, Xpeng signed official agency cooperation agreements with automobile distribution company Inchcape and European dealer Hedin Group. Starting from February, Xpeng accelerated its globalization process, planning to cover 60 countries and regions by 2025, aiming to be among the top three global exporters of new energy vehicles by 2027, and targeting half of its sales coming from overseas by 2033.
The domestic market competition pattern is about to be fixed, and the curtain of global competition among car companies is rising.
Change of leadership, placement, final sprint
At present, the competitive landscape of car companies is becoming more stable, and the threshold for competition is getting higher and higher. If you want to avoid being eliminated or occupy a more favorable market share, this may be the last time window.
In March, Gu Hui-nan, General Manager of GAC Aion, retired, which is a top-level personnel adjustment. According to GAC's arrangement, after Gu Hui-nan's retirement, GAC Aion will temporarily no longer have a General Manager position. For Aion, which is currently in a struggling period, Gu Hui-nan's retirement and the absence of a General Manager may mean continued struggles ahead.
BAIC BluePark has also completed a leadership change, with former General Manager Zhang Guofu promoted to Chairman and former Deputy General Manager Liu Guanqiao promoted to General Manager. The personnel changes for both individuals occurred in July of last year, and within less than a year, they have become the new executive leadership team of the company.
In addition to personnel adjustments, private placements and fundraising are the main themes of this month.
On March 11, BYD completed its placement, successfully issuing a total of 129.8 million new H shares at a placement price of HKD 335.2 per share. After deducting commissions and estimated expenses, the net proceeds from the placement amount to approximately HKD 43.383 billion.
In the same month, Xiaomi's placement was successfully completed, with a total of 800 million shares placed, raising a net amount of approximately HKD 42.5 billion.
NIO also swiftly completed its placement, though the amount raised was significantly lower than that of BYD and Xiaomi. NIO's shares were priced at HKD 29.46 per share, raising a total of HKD 4.03 billion.
In the capital market, selling shares when the stock price is high is a strong fundraising measure. This will provide a more solid foundation for future business expansion and R&D investment. The fundraising through share sale may be for the final share competition reserve, and the competition among car companies may continue to escalate.
Mi Xiaoli Zero: The New King Takes the Throne, A Great Chaos Among New Forces
If we talk about the biggest change in the new forces in March, it is probably the change of the sales champion's owner.
Zeekr delivered 37,095 vehicles, surpassing Li Auto's 36,674 units, becoming the best-performing new force in sales. Since the second half of last year, Zeekr's sales have skyrocketed, continuously setting new historical highs. Zeekr's impressive performance is largely attributed to its strong cost-performance strategy.
In March, Zero Run released the B10 model, with a price ranging from 109,800 to 139,800 yuan. The official stated that the car is equipped with a "unique in its class" intelligent driving solution featuring a laser radar and an 8650 chip, capable of realizing high-speed and urban automatic navigation assistance; the intelligent cockpit will adopt the 8295 chip, with the voice assistant connected to the cloud-based large model.
Among users, Leapmotor has become the "affordable alternative to Li Auto," which is not only an affirmation of its cost-performance ratio but also a recognition of its product capabilities. Surpassing Li Auto to become the sales leader in the new energy vehicle sector demonstrates the success of Leapmotor's strategic approach.
Xiaopeng also achieved positive results through its models. Xiaopeng was the sales champion among new in February. In March, Xiaopeng's sales reached 33,205 units, of which the low-cost model Mona M03 had delivered over 15,000 units for four consecutive months, almost. The Mona M03 completely reversed Xiaopeng's situation.
Xpeng has directly planned five series of extended-range models, including sedans and SUVs. The company also plans to mass-produce its segmented flying car, the "Land Carrier," by 2026. A significant improvement in sales has reversed Xpeng's situation, bringing the company back to the forefront among new forces.
Ideal Automobile is currently facing issues related to its product line. At present, Ideal only offers one type of vehicle, an SUV, and only one mode, which is extended range. This is not conducive to increasing Ideal's sales. According to the plan, Ideal's pure electric models, the i8 and i6, will be launched in 2025. The i8 is positioned as a 6-seat mid-to-large size pure electric SUV, while the i6 is a large 5-seat pure electric SUV.
This may be an important initiative for Li Auto to enrich its product line. However, having absorbed the mistakes made by MEGA in the past, Li Auto has set a very conservative sales target of 50,000 units for its pure electric models. With a solid basic market, Li Auto may not need to be overly anxious about sales. However, due to the still relatively concentrated product line, it will be difficult for Li Auto to achieve new breakthroughs.
In all new forces, Xiaomi may be the most special existence. In March, Xiaomi significantly increased its production capacity, with deliveries exceeding 29,000 units, which can be considered the first echelon.
Xiaomi is currently not worried about sales at all. The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra received over 10,000 pre-orders within two hours of its launch, which clearly demonstrates the market appeal of its products. The monthly delivery figures for Xiaomi's cars depend more on production capacity than on the number of sales. According to the plan, Xiaomi's first SUV will soon be launched. If production capacity is maximized, Xiaomi may quickly rise to the top of the new forces.
However, Xiaomi still has shortcomings, especially in smart driving. At the end of February, Xiaomi HAD’s end-to-end full-scenario intelligent driving started to be pushed out to all users in batches. But within just a month, a series of safety incidents have frequently been exposed. These safety incidents need to be properly addressed; otherwise, they will ultimately affect Xiaomi's brand image and its sales in the future.
Hongmeng: The Disappeared Battle Report
Entering April, Hongmeng Zhixing has been delaying the release of sales data, and it was not until April 3rd that they announced their first place in China's pure electric vehicle residual value for three consecutive months.
Huawei's appeal is strong enough. The VENUS M8, priced from 368,000 yuan, exceeded 28,000 orders in just 12 hours of pre-sale. The VENUS M9 2025 model, starting at 478,000 yuan, saw more than 13,500 orders in the first 12 hours of pre-sale. Yu Chengdong said that the orders for these two models far exceeded expectations.
Since the beginning of this year, several car companies have chosen to collaborate deeply with Huawei. SAIC's "Sangjie," in partnership with Huawei, is set to debut soon. It is expected to be released on April 10, with the first model being an optimized version of SAIC's existing models. GAC's collaboration with Huawei is also progressing steadily.
In addition, BMW is collaborating with Huawei to develop HarmonyOS smart applications, and the partnership has extended to foreign car manufacturers.
However, the sales of HarmonyOS in March may not be particularly optimistic.
According to the production and sales data released by Seres, Seres cars led by the Aska series only sold 18,805 units in March, failing to break through 20,000 units for three consecutive months. In terms of Zhi Jie, its March sales were only 10,005 units, which is basically the same as February. The performance of these two major models can only be described as barely satisfactory, and Hongmeng Zhixing is facing a test.
The greatest challenge may still stem from BYD's "intelligence driving equality" and the "megawatt flash charging" technology released in March, the latter of which can charge 407 kilometers in 5 minutes with a maximum charging voltage of 1000V. In terms of three electricity and intelligent driving, it poses a challenge to Huawei's advantageous technology.
Chengdong Yu once posted on Weibo after a BYD that, "In intelligent driving, there is a vast difference between barely usable and good, safe use." This statement seems to imply BYD.
When models in the 100,000 yuan price range can accommodate smart driving, it becomes difficult for vehicles priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan to demonstrate "high-endness" through smart driving features alone. HiSilicon Smart Mobility is facing a new challenge.
NIO: Tightening the Belt to Avoid Elimination
NIO has been on a intensive media push in March.
Li Bin has communicated externally multiple times, focusing on aspects such as profitability. Li Bin admitted that NIO has indeed not done well enough in terms of implementation, management, cost control, and return on investment. The investment in NIO's intelligence and battery swapping has been substantial, but the communication has not been effective. NIO has fully implemented the CBU (Core Business Unit) management measures and expects to be profitable in the fourth quarter of this year.
In March, NIO's delivery volume was only 15,039 units. Although this is considered an improvement, there is still a significant gap compared to competitors. Among them, the main brand has not shown any particularly notable progress, with sales just surpassing 10,000 units. The low-priced model, the Lido L60, also performed poorly, with March sales only reaching 4,820 units, repeating the sales trend of the main brand models.
In the past few years, NIO has incurred losses exceeding 100 billion yuan. If it weren't for Li Bin's strong fundraising ability, NIO might not have made it to today. Now, at a critical stage of competition, NIO cannot spend money recklessly or continue to incur losses, which has significantly increased operational pressure.
Currently, NIO has one last card to play—Firefly. This model is expected to launch on April 19th and is a more affordable brand, tasked with driving sales.
NIO's window of opportunity is gradually closing, and the real challenge is this year.
GAC Aion: The Dilemma of High-End Development
Aion was once an extremely strong brand in the new energy sector, but in recent years, its sales have consistently failed to achieve further breakthroughs.
In March, Aion's sales reached 34,082 units, surpassing XPeng but falling short of Li Auto and Leapmotor. Since its inception, Aion has had an inseparable connection with ride-hailing services, which was initially its core market but has now become a stereotype that the brand struggles to shake off.
Aion has attempted to move upscale, such as with the Aion LX Plus model, which has a minimum price of 286,600 yuan. However, it is clear that this is not enough for Aion to establish a high-end perception.
On March 18, GAC Group invested in the establishment of a new company, Huawang Automobile, and a new high-end intelligent vehicle brand will be announced soon. GAC has chosen to embrace Huawei, and GAC Group Chairman Feng Xingya revealed that the Huawang Automobile project, a collaboration between the two parties, will mainly target high-end customers in the 300,000 yuan range. Detailed product definitions and positioning will be primarily led by Huawei.
This is a significant exploration of GAC's high-end strategy. By leveraging Huawei's high-end brand, GAC may be able to establish its own high-end brand. This also means that the brand positioning and strategic situation of Aion could potentially be affected.
The positive aspect is that Aion remains a brand highly favored by ride-hailing drivers, which ensures a baseline for product sales. However, the negative aspect is also evident: Aion's path to high-end positioning may be exceptionally difficult.
Nezha: The Struggle to Turn the Tide from Rock Bottom
Nezha finally received positive news this month.
On March 25, NIO's sub-brand Neta Auto reached a debt-to-equity agreement exceeding 2 billion yuan with 134 key domestic suppliers in preparation for resuming production.
According to multiple media reports, the debt restructuring plan provided by Nio Automobile to its suppliers is that 70% of the suppliers' claims will be converted into equity in Hezhong Automobile, the parent company of Nio Automobile. The remaining 30% of the claims will be treated as interest-free debt and repaid in cash in installments. The claims will be evenly divided into 15 installments, with payments to be made monthly starting from May this year.
This means that Nezha may not come to an abrupt halt like Weltmeister and Jirui, and still has the possibility of a comeback.
However, the possibility of a turnaround is limited. Alongside the disclosure of the debt-to-equity agreement, news emerged that Dai Dali, the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of NIO, and Wang Junping, the head of the autonomous driving business, have resigned.
At present, even with stable sales over ten thousand, it may not be able to get on the "ship" at the end. Nezha, even if it can recover, may still find it difficult to join the mainstream.
This may be the current situation of competition among car companies. The competition threshold is extremely high. If you fall behind, you may never have a chance to turn things around. The error tolerance of car companies is also very low, and competition has reached a white-hot stage. This process involves products, brands, as well as intelligent driving, three electric systems, and involves both domestic and overseas markets. Competition is a multi-dimensional, comprehensive competition.
