1 Today's Summary

On April 1st, market attention shifted from oil-producing countries' sanctions to the U.S. tariff policy, raising concerns that demand prospects would be hampered, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEXcrude oil futuresThe May contract fell by $0.28 per barrel to $71.20, a decrease of 0.39%; the ICE Brent crude futures for the June contract fell by $0.28 per barrel to $74.49, a decrease of 0.37%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures, 2505, rose by 11.6 to 549 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose by 4.3 to 553.3 yuan per barrel.

Today HDPE MarketPrice adjustment, with a fluctuation of 2-6 yuan per ton; LDPE market prices slightly increased, with a fluctuation of 2 yuan per ton.LLDPE marketThe price slightly decreased, with a decline of 7 yuan per ton.

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polyethylene Closing Prices (Unit: Yuan per ton)

Today, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices showed mixed trends. HDPE spot market prices saw minor adjustments of 2-6 yuan/ton, with supply slightly tightened due to partial plant maintenance and production shifts, but overall market demand remained limited. End-users showed clear resistance to high-priced resources, leading to minor price fluctuations. LDPE spot market prices rose slightly by 2 yuan/ton, as LDPE supply remained relatively stable, and downstream demand improved somewhat, prompting a modest increase in market offers. LLDPE spot market prices declined slightly by 7 yuan/ton, with significant supply pressure overall and no noticeable improvement in downstream demand. Market participants lacked confidence, mostly maintaining active sales, resulting in continued minor price declines.

3 Futures-spot basis

LL The key contract fluctuated upward, opening at 7,688 yuan per ton. By 15:00, the closing price was 7,711 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 364,400 lots, with open interest at 386,000 lots, a decrease of 26,500 lots. The spot price difference today was 9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21 yuan per ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Dynamics

The polyethylene capacity utilization rate increased from 82.49% to 83.42%, up by 0.93% month-on-month. Today, the maintenance restart of the Yanshan Petrochemical HDPE Line 1 unit was involved, with no additional unit maintenance added. The oil-based production cost was 8,256 yuan/ton, down by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; oil-based profit stood at -356 yuan/ton, down by 42 yuan/ton from the previous working day; coal-based profit was 1,604 yuan/ton, down by 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

5 Market Sentiment

Table 2: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6 Price Forecast

As the Qingming holiday approaches, merchants maintain a positive attitude towards shipments. Supply pressure remains, so most grades are still priced relatively low. In the short term, with expectations of new capacity from Exxon and Inner Mongolia Baofeng coming online, the terminal inquiry price intentions are lower, and traders may have to passively offer discounts. However, strong support from the cost side, along with increased low-end transactions, provides confidence to the market, and prices are likely to remain in a low and narrow fluctuation range.

7 , related product information

Crude oil market: In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has shifted. The upside comes from heightened U.S. sanctions on Iran and geopolitical instability, while the downside stems from Trump's tariff policies dampening demand expectations, OPEC+'s modest production increase, and a strong U.S. dollar. Today, some of Trump's previously announced tariff policies will take effect, with potential new tariffs to be announced, keeping global economic and demand pressures elevated. International crude oil prices are expected to trend downward today.

8 Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polyethylene Data (Unit: 10,000 Tons)