Recently, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises in China has decreased by 6.68% compared to the previous period, and it has fallen by 24.04% from its peak this year. Enterprise proactive price reductions and inventory clearance, along with trade discounts, have led to simultaneous declines in inventory and prices. The spot market shows mixed trends; HDPE saw localized price increases due to plant maintenance causing supply shortages, but LLDPE continued to fall due to weak demand, with the main price dropping to 8,075 yuan per ton. The agricultural film market saw price drops to 9,500-10,000 yuan per ton for dual anti-film due to decreases in both raw material costs and orders, while enterprise raw material inventories also reduced. Looking ahead, the upcoming Qingming holiday may spur some essential replenishment purchases, but the release of new production capacity and the winding down of mulch film demand suggest that polyethylene prices are expected to oscillate within a 50-100 yuan per ton range. Agricultural film prices and operating rates are expected to remain stable.

Figure 1 Comparison of Sample Inventory and Price Trends of Polyethylene Producers in China (CNY/ton, right axis: 10,000 tons)

Recently, the sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises in China has maintained a downward trend, falling by 6.68% month-on-month. Currently, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is at a medium-to-high level compared to the past year, down 24.04% from the year's peak and up 66.79% from the year's low. Production enterprises have actively reduced prices to destock, and traders have also offered discounts to boost sales, leading to improved transactions. Both the inventory and prices of production enterprises have declined, showing a positive correlation between the two.

Domestic polyethylene spot market prices fluctuate, with changes ranging from 30 to 150 yuan per ton. This week.Polyethylene marketDue to device maintenance and production changes, the supply of some HDPE varieties is slightly tight, leading to a price increase. However, overall market demand is limited, and end-users show significant resistance to high-priced resources, which restricts further price increases. At the same time, new production capacity is gradually being released, resulting in a bearish market sentiment. Merchants maintain an active sales strategy, but transactions remain weak. In China,LLDPE marketPrices continue to fall, and at the end of the month, market resources are slightly tight. Although cost support remains strong, supply and demand are weak, and participants in the market lack confidence in the future. Most are maintaining active sales, while downstream purchasing efforts are slowing down, resulting in average transactions. The mainstream price for LLDPE Melt Index 2 film material is around 8,075 yuan per ton.

Figure 2 Weekly Comparison of Agricultural Film Raw Material Inventory Days and North China Greenhouse Film Price (yuan/ton, right axis: days)

The prices of raw materials fluctuated and declined, reducing the cost of agricultural film. Coupled with a decrease in accumulated orders, some companies lowered prices to retain orders, leading to a drop in agricultural film product prices. As of March 26, 2025, the mainstream price of double-layer mulch film in North China was 9,500-10,000 RMB per ton. During this period, the inventory days of agricultural film began to decline, and the prices of agricultural film products also fell due to the drop in raw material prices. In the short term, the raw material inventory of agricultural film enterprises and the price trend of agricultural film moved in the same direction.

The cumulative orders for agricultural film have decreased, coupled with fluctuating and declining raw material prices. Film enterprises are cautiously observing the market and mainly purchasing based on orders, resulting in a slight reduction in overall inventory for agricultural film companies. By product category: the demand for greenhouse film is in its off-season, with limited order accumulation and weak raw material consumption, leading to low purchasing enthusiasm among enterprises. The inventory days of raw materials for greenhouse film companies have increased only slightly. For ground film, large-scale enterprises are still in their peak production season, but order follow-ups have decreased. Film enterprises are purchasing raw materials at low prices based on orders, resulting in a reduction in raw material inventory.

**Outlook for the Coming Period:** While production remains stable for some large-scale mulch film enterprises, new order intake for small and medium-sized enterprises has slowed, and corporate procurement is expected to decline. However, as the Qingming holiday falls next week, some companies may advance purchases for holiday needs. Although the consumer market has driven some short-cycle new orders, the gradual delivery of these orders has weakened support for operational activity, and the operating rate may decline. From the supply perspective, maintenance-related production losses next week are expected to decrease by 47,700 tons compared to this week. Overall, while maintenance-related supply disruptions may increase next week, newly operational enterprises will gradually normalize production. Downstream demand is expected to remain steady with essential restocking, and polyethylene prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a range of 50–100 yuan/ton. With the slowdown in new mulch film orders, production in the sector is gradually winding down. Coupled with the off-season for greenhouse film demand, raw material support remains weak. Although some companies may advance purchases ahead of the Qingming holiday, overall agricultural film demand is limited, further weakening raw material support. Therefore, agricultural film production is expected to remain stable next week, with the mainstream price of double-layer mulch film in North China likely holding steady at 9,500–10,000 yuan/ton. (Personal opinion, for reference only)