Global energy and chemical industry market information service agencies recently stated that American chemical companies are facing profit contraction due to fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices, while also dealing with issues related to tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Analyst Koze Olko stated that the key driving factor behind the rise in U.S. gas prices is the surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Due to the strong growth in electricity demand from data centers, U.S. natural gas supply may tighten further. In contrast, oil demand is expected to decline due to accelerated supply growth from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, and a slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to a drop in oil prices.

It is estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil will drop by 6.7% in 2025 and by another 7.4% in 2026; the average price of WTI will also drop by 6.7% in 2025 and by another 7.9% in 2026. The cost of chemical raw materials in the United States, especially ethane, will fluctuate with the rise and fall of gas prices. It is estimated that the average price of natural gas in the United States will increase by 66.8% in 2025 and by another 3.9% in 2026. The trends of both will inevitably squeeze the profit margins of U.S. ethylene producers.

However, the demand for ethylene is declining. Tariffs have increased the import costs of raw materials used to make catalysts and plastic additives, and the EU and Canada may impose retaliatory tariffs on polyethylene exported from the United States. Peter Huntsman, CEO of U.S. chemical producer Huntsman Corporation, expects that the rebound in the U.S. real estate market may be delayed due to uncertainties over tariffs and mortgage interest rates, and the demand for ethylene from the construction industry will continue to be weak, further exacerbating the instability in the ethylene market.