Agricultural Film Off-Season Arrives, Weak Supply And Demand Lead To A Slightly Weak Market Fluctuation

Agricultural films are gradually entering the traditional off-season for demand, with downstream purchasing showing weak follow-up, production pace slowing down, and new orders continuing to decline. The weakening demand, combined with a lack of substantial positive stimuli, has led to an overall cool trading atmosphere in the market, and companies' operational mindset has become increasingly conservative and cautious.

The end-user demand for agricultural film has entered the off-season, and distributors’ willingness to purchase has cooled significantly. Meanwhile, raw material prices continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, providing insufficient support for agricultural film product prices. Overall industry quotations remain largely stable, and the pace of market transactions continues to slow. Constrained by both volatile raw material prices and limited room for finished product price adjustments, the overall profit margins of the agricultural film industry have narrowed, and the operating pressure on enterprises has continued to increase.

Under the dual pressure of weakening demand and shrinking profits, most agricultural film enterprises have proactively reduced production loads, leading to a decline in the industry’s overall operating rate. Mulch film has been more significantly affected by seasonal factors, with a relatively large drop in operating rates, particularly in the concentrated mulch film production areas of Northwest and Southwest China. On the polyethylene feedstock side, the market has also shifted from previous destocking to inventory accumulation, increasing supply pressure and further dampening agricultural film enterprises’ willingness to purchase raw materials.

Demand for mulch film is currently nearing its end, while greenhouse film is also in its traditional off-season. Follow-up on new market orders remains insufficient, and most enterprises are mainly arranging production to fulfill previous orders, with overall purchasing enthusiasm relatively weak. In terms of raw material stocking, risk-averse sentiment among enterprises is rising, and restocking willingness is generally cautious. Most are adopting a strategy of purchasing only as needed and buying on demand. Raw material inventories continue to be drawn down, with overall inventory levels remaining lower than in the same period of previous years.

Looking ahead, the agricultural film market is expected to remain in its off-season pattern, with end-user demand unlikely to recover significantly. The industry’s operating rate, order volume, and raw material inventories are expected to stay weak and on a downward trend. Finished product prices lack both upward and downward catalysts and will most likely remain stable. Polyethylene feedstock will continue to fluctuate under the combined influence of international oil prices, plant maintenance and operating conditions, and downstream demand, providing limited support to agricultural film costs. Overall, the domestic agricultural film market is expected to remain weak and stable in the near term, with no clear signs of a rebound or reversal.