Crude Oil Prices Surge Internationally! Iran Submits Ceasefire Terms, Trump Says War Will End Soon! Domestic Plastic Futures Diverge

I. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On April 27, crude oil prices surged sharply. WTI crude oil broke above $96 per barrel, while Brent crude oil surpassed $101 per barrel, both rising over 2% intraday. NYMEX crude oil futures surged sharply in after-hours trading.

Market Outlook

1. The Iranian Foreign Minister visited Pakistan, but the new round of US-Iran negotiations has yet to be determined, and concerns over supply risks persist. (Positive)

2. The U.S. has sent signals of easing tensions, and some institutions believe that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are likely likely likely likely likely likely likely likely likely likely likely likely probably going to take place. (Bearish)

U.S. energy companies added oil and gas rigs for the first time in three weeks. (Bearish)

II. Macro Dynamics

Trump: The war with Iran will end soon, and the US will win.

According to foreign media on the 26th, US President Trump said in an interview with Fox News,He believed the war with Iran would end soon and the US would win.If Iran wants to negotiate, it can call the U.S. "Hope Iran is wise," (Xinhua).

Iranian Foreign Minister Presents Ceasefire Conditions to Pakistan

According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency’s report on the 26th, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Pakistan for consultations. In addition to bilateral relations talks, Araghchi conveyed Iran’s conditions for ending the hostilities to Pakistan.Conditions include implementing a new legal system in the Strait of Hormuz, obtaining compensation, ensuring no further military aggression, and lifting the maritime blockade.Negotiation terms are unrelated to the nuclear issue. (Xinhua)

Iranian official: Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must pay a fee.

On April 26, Aziz, Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Islamic Parliament of Iran, stated in an interview that…All vessels wishing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must pay a fee. He also stated that the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the key pillars of Iran's power.(CCTV News)

Iran claims to have successfully destroyed three US massive bunker-buster bombs

Local time, April 26The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that its special forces have successfully destroyed three US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators and dismantled another one left in Zanjan Province, Iran.The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), also known as the “bunker buster,” is a heavy penetrating bomb developed by the United States. The U.S. employed this type of bomb in last year’s military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and has also deployed large quantities of it in this year’s U.S.-Iran conflict. (CCTV News)

Iranian Foreign Minister to visit Russia on 27th, will meet with Putin

It was learned on April 26,Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will visit Moscow on the 27th and hold talks with Putin.During his trip to Moscow, Alagazi will communicate with Russian officials on the latest negotiation developments, the ceasefire situation, and the surrounding regional dynamics, and will submit a report on these negotiations to Moscow officials. (CCTV News)

Trump Says He Has Had "Good Communications" with Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Seeking to Advance Conflict Resolution

Local time April 26, U.S. President Trump stated,Has engaged in “good communication” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and is actively working to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.(CCTV News)

Trump: The shooting suspect left a note calling for an attack on government officials.

U.S. President Trump stated on the 26th thatThe suspect in the White House Correspondents' Association dinner shooting left a note calling for the attack on government officials.Trump stated that the suspect in the shooting was immediately subdued by law enforcement and did not approach the banquet hall where the dinner was being held. The suspect left a note calling for attacks on government officials and held "anti-Christian" views. (CCTV News)

Suspect in White House Correspondents' Dinner security incident to be charged on the 27th

On April 26th, local time, Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blandch stated,A search warrant has been executed on the suspect involved in the security incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, and it is believed that the suspect traveled from Los Angeles by train via Chicago to Washington D.C.Blanch said,The suspect will be charged in federal court on the morning of the 27th.Blanch said the gunman at the White House Correspondents' Dinner "intended to attack government personnel, likely including the president himself." (CCTV News)

Trump says he will revive the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

On April 26 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated,The White House Correspondents' Dinner, which was interrupted by a shooting incident, is hoped to be held again in a "relatively short time," possibly within about 30 days.Trump stated that “criminals and extremely dangerous individuals” should not be allowed to alter the arrangements for important national events, emphasizing that the banquet “was originally an important event.” He had previously expressed his hope that the event would proceed as scheduled that evening. (CCTV News)

III. Plastic Market Dynamics

Oil prices rebounded and rose! The main domestic plastic futures contract traded weakly and oscillated.

The plastic 2609 contract was reported at 8106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous trading day.

The PP2609 contract was quoted at RMB 8,398 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2609 contract is quoted at 5,174 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous trading day.

Styrene 2606 contract quoted at 9763 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from the previous trading day.

IV. Market Forecast

PE: In the short term, the cost side is supported by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, keeping oil and ethylene prices at relatively high levels, thereby providing a floor for prices. On the supply side, domestic production facilities are undergoing concentrated maintenance, Middle Eastern imports are relatively tight, and some full-density PE units are expected to shift production to HDPE, resulting in relatively tight supply of LLDPE and LDPE. However, demand remains persistently weak, with downstream buyers resisting high prices amid the off-season, leading to sluggish trading activity. PE prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of RMB 50–100/ton.

PP: Geopolitical tensions remain volatile, keeping crude oil prices fluctuating at elevated levels and providing continued cost support. Some production units have plans to restart, and although maintenance-related supply losses are expected to decline slightly, they remain high overall, sustaining a tight supply that supports spot prices. However, downstream buyers are showing reluctance toward high-priced cargoes, with new order intake weak, limiting trading volumes. The polypropylene market thus faces potential downside risks.

PVC: Domestic EDC (ethylene dichloride) production enterprises have begun maintenance, while the ethylene method continues to reduce production under cost pressure, leading to a narrowing domestic supply. However, high energy costs have put pressure on both domestic and international demand, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation. The subsequent focus will be on the impact of regional situations on costs and changes in domestic policies. In the short term, the domestic PVC spot market is expected to remain in a bottom-level range fluctuation.