EVA Morning Brief: EVA Market Expected to Remain Weak Amid Consolidation

I. Focus Areas

1 [Longzhong]4/28: The prospects for negotiations between the US and Iran remain uncertain, with the Strait of Hormuz still facing disruptions to navigation. International oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures for June increased by $3.56 to $99.93 per barrel, a 3.69% increase; ICE Brent crude oil futures for June went up by $3.03 to $111.26 per barrel, a 2.80% increase. China's INE crude oil futures for June 2026 contract rose by 12.2 to 659.6 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it further increased by 8.8 to 668.4 yuan per barrel.

2 With the approaching May Day long weekend, producers are willing to offer discounts to ease inventory pressure, and the market's intention to sell at competitive prices is increasing. It cannot be ruled out that the price of ethylene may continue to decline, with the price range possibly hovering around 8700-8800 yuan/ton. At present, domestic export negotiations have decreased, and the acceptance of high-priced ethylene resources in other Asian countries and regions has declined. It is expected that the market will mainly remain at a stalemate in the short term, with transactions possibly around 1200-1450 USD/ton.

3 Vinyl acetate: The vinyl acetate market remains weak and volatile, with sluggish downstream demand, low inquiry activity, and limited actual transactions. Price levels continue to fluctuate downward, and some lower prices still offer room for negotiation. In the short term, the vinyl acetate market lacks supportive factors, and market sentiment is predominantly bearish; prices are therefore expected to continue declining.

The core logic: With crude oil fluctuating at high levels, EVA manufacturers face high production costs and primarily adopt a strategy of reducing output to maintain prices. However, downstream demand is weak, leading to very sluggish market transactions. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a stalemate with a slight downward trend.

II. Price Form

III. Market Outlook

In the medium term, crude oil prices have support space. Currently, the high cost of petrochemicals may lead petrochemical companies to cut production to maintain prices. EVA plants are increasing maintenance, while downstream demand remains weak and difficult to rebound. The spot market is being slowly consumed. The fundamental supply and demand situation is weak on both sides. It is expected that the EVA market will remain weak and fluctuate in the short term. Forecast: Soft grades are expected to range from 11,500 to 12,300 yuan/ton, hard grades from 11,000 to 12,000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic grades around 12,000 yuan/ton.