Tesla spacex merger rumors surface! overseas oil prices diverge, domestic plastic futures range-bound, polyethylene may continue weak trend

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

The market remains optimistic about the prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations, but concerns have been raised by unresolved details between the two sides, leading to mixed movements in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures July contract fell by USD 2.71/barrel, or 2.81%, to USD 93.89/barrel; the ICE Brent crude oil futures July contract rose by USD 3.44/barrel, or 3.58%, to USD 99.58/barrel.

Market outlook forecast

The U.S.-Iran negotiations are still ongoing. How to resolve disputes including the demand to unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has become the key to advancing the peace talks. Iranian officials and Arab mediators revealed that, despite a deadly U.S. military strike on Iranian forces, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf remained in Qatar to continue a second round of talks aimed at advancing a ceasefire agreement and addressing the sticking points in the peace plan. A source close to Iran’s negotiating team said that one of the main points of disagreement in the current U.S.-Iran talks is the issue of unfreezing Iran’s overseas funds. If a potential memorandum of understanding is reached with the United States, Iran’s $24 billion in frozen assets must be released. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf’s visit to Qatar was intended to reach an agreement on how to implement Iran’s demand regarding its frozen funds. Speaker Ghalibaf said that if the United States “plays word games,” Tehran will withdraw from the negotiations. Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran is ready to reach a “dignified” framework agreement to end the ongoing war and tensions in the region. The Qatari government, for its part, said it would spare no effort to do everything possible for regional peace and stability.

Before the boots hit the ground, investors' expectations for oil prices are hesitant and cautious. Funds have appropriately priced in the final memorandum of understanding before the actual results emerge, but the ongoing tension due to the blockade in the Strait limits the downward space for oil prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical developments makes oil prices susceptible to sharp fluctuations. It is advisable to remain patient and wait for the final outcome, pay attention to timing, and strengthen risk control.

2. Macroeconomic Dynamics

1、Uzbekistan fully resumed gold exports in April.

2、Malaysia reportedly imposes a 10% tariff on imports of certain gold bars.

According to Yonhap News Agency: A South Korean court rejected an injunction request to suspend negotiations by Samsung’s main labor union.

4、According to CNBC, Musk discussed the possibility of merging Tesla and SpaceX with colleagues.

Micron Technology's market capitalization has reached $1 trillion, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of the year, Micron Technology has accumulated a growth rate of 210%.

6. The Iran War ——

Iran — 1Iran says that if the war resumes, it will retaliate fiercely and block regional oil exports.② Iranian Foreign Ministry: The United States has flagrantly violated the ceasefire agreement, and Iran will respond. ③ The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Iran has the right to respond to any U.S. violation of the ceasefire agreement. A U.S. MQ-9 drone was locked onto and shot down. ④ Iranian media denied claims that Iran and the United States had reached a memorandum of understanding. ⑤ The Iranian president: We are ready to reach a “dignified” framework agreement.

USA - ①U.S. Central Command said it carried out a self-defense strike in southern Iran, and a U.S. official said this does not mean the ceasefire has ended.② U.S. President Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. ③ U.S. Central Command: The United States has not resumed “Operation Prosperity Guardian,” and reports that the operation has been restarted are inaccurate. ④ Rubio: (Regarding Iran) Negotiations over the wording of an agreement with Iran may “still take several more days.”

③ Others — ①Netanyahu: The Israeli army is occupying “strategic positions” in Lebanon. It launched an attack on the head of Hamas’s new armed branch in Gaza. ② Sources: Unfreezing Iranian overseas funds has become the main point of disagreement in U.S.-Iran talks.Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Reports about Qatar investing $12 billion to facilitate the agreement are completely false.

7. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: We hope that all parties concerned with the Iranian nuclear issue seize the opportunity to reach a solution through negotiations that takes into account the reasonable concerns of all sides.

The Iranian military stated that the U.S. launched a round of strikes while negotiations were ongoing. The Foreign Ministry responded by urging relevant parties to fulfill their ceasefire commitments and to resolve disputes through peaceful means.

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in April 2026,In the domestic market, the mobile phone shipment volume reached 25.733 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, of which 5G phones accounted for 24.736 million units.

III. Futures Market Dynamics of the Plastics Market

International oil prices were mixed! The main domestic plastics futures contract fluctuated within a narrow range:

The September 2026 plastics contract was quoted at 7,845 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous trading day.

The PP2609 contract was quoted at 8,572 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2609 contract is quoted at 4870 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2605 contract was quoted at 8,801 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day.

IV. Market Forecast

Currently, the industry is entering the traditional off-season for consumer goods, and the end market lacks vitality. Downstream practitioners generally hold a cautious and watchful attitude, with low willingness to purchase. In the face of a bearish market landscape, merchants are choosing to promote moderate discounts to accelerate inventory turnover. However, even with price concessions, it is difficult to stimulate purchasing demand, and the downstream continues to maintain a wait-and-see stance, awaiting clearer market direction. On-site transactions are primarily based on flexible negotiations. Meanwhile, production facilities that previously entered maintenance are gradually resuming operation, leading to a steady increase in domestic spot supply, which is putting growing pressure on the market's supply side. Currently, the market is deeply entrenched in a negative environment characterized by weakening costs, weak demand, and expanding supply. The overall fundamentals are not optimistic. Considering all factors, the short-term polyethylene market lacks upward momentum and is likely to continue a weak and fluctuating trend, with little chance for a reversal, and overall trading activity will remain subdued.

PP: Multiple bearish factors continue to weigh on market performance, becoming the core force driving the trend. On one hand, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has continued, while refinery operating rates in many parts of Asia have remained low and expectations of Fed rate hikes have continued to rise. The combined impact of these external factors has led to a sharp pullback in international crude oil prices, completely weakening upstream cost support for polypropylene. On the other hand, the industry has entered the traditional off-season for consumption, with downstream end-market demand continuing to weaken. Meanwhile, production units that had previously undergone phased maintenance have resumed operations one after another, leading to a steady recovery in market supply and a further loosening of the supply-demand balance. End-users have slowed the pace of order follow-up, raw material consumption has continued to shrink, and a cautious wait-and-see sentiment is prevalent across the industry, with downstream players only maintaining need-based restocking. Based on the overall fundamentals, the polypropylene market is unlikely to see a recovery driver in the short term. Under the dual constraints of collapsing costs and sluggish demand, the market is expected to continue operating in a weak, narrow-range fluctuation pattern.

PVC: Maintenance among PVC producers is relatively concentrated, keeping upstream supply reductions at a low level. However, domestic demand orders remain lackluster, while India’s tariff policy and the rainy season have cooled foreign trade exports. The supply-demand structure is weak on both sides. As month-end approaches, expectations for policy support are limited, while cost-side bottom support remains firm. The spot market is expected to fluctuate mainly within a range.