Current Crude Oil Supply Contradictions Show Structural Divergence, While Information Warfare Emerges As Another Layer Of Oil Price

  April 20 – In early trading, SC crude oil futures opened significantly higher, narrowing the decline to 2.51%. According to Everbright Futures’ research report dated April 20, overall, the current crude oil supply imbalance exhibits structural divergence: Middle Eastern exports to external markets have declined, while exports from other regions—including temporary sales of Russian oil stored on vessels at sea—have increased, alongside a substantial rise in U.S. exports. Inventory levels also display structural divergence: with numerous tankers congested at the Strait of Hormuz, floating storage volumes—counted as part of total inventory—have risen, whereas onshore inventories are continuously being drawn down. Nonetheless, total inventory levels are expected to decline markedly. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern production and exports will undergo reassessment, all of which will impact crude oil pricing. From the current market perspective, an “information war” has emerged as an additional factor influencing oil prices, driving the price center lower. During the ceasefire negotiation period, it is certain that internal divisions within Iran have intensified—constituting a vulnerability for Iran and a strategic advantage for the U.S. Leveraging its media dominance, the U.S. is fostering market expectations of recurring geopolitical volatility to erode crude oil’s risk premium; in contrast, the fundamental supply-demand deficit remains a secondary pricing factor. Consequently, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.