Could the United States' Attack on Venezuela and Capture of Maduro Truly Affect the Global Oil Supply Landscape?

The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, the "oil treasure land," by the United States has reignited discussions about the global oil market situation: if Venezuela's oil industry begins to operate "normally" under U.S. influence, will it lead to a significant increase in global oil supply? Who will benefit and who will be harmed? In a recent statement on Saturday, U.S. President Trump indicated that U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil would continue, but he also noted that major American oil companies would go to Venezuela to invest billions of dollars in repairing the severely damaged oil infrastructure.

According to OPEC data, by the end of 2024, Venezuela holds about 17% of the world's oil reserves, amounting to 303 billion barrels, surpassing the actual leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and ranking first globally. However, most of these reserves consist of heavy crude oil, which requires special technology for extraction and refining. Despite the astonishing resources, the country currently produces only about 1 million barrels per day, primarily due to sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption within the state oil company (PDVSA), a significant drop from nearly 3 million barrels 20 years ago, accounting for only 1% of global supply.

Analysts say that if Venezuela's abundant heavy crude oil reserves can eventually flow more smoothly into the global market, U.S. refiners will be the biggest beneficiaries. However, this prospect also faces numerous challenges. Analysts point out that global demand for additional oil has already weakened, making it difficult to stimulate investment interest among U.S. oil companies. Furthermore, the oil industry harbors significant concerns about investing in Venezuela, with core worries including the uncertain future of Venezuela's political situation, the difficult-to-assess state of infrastructure decay, the lack of security for personnel and equipment, and uncertain investment return prospects. It is foreseeable that regardless of how the situation evolves, the process of reshaping Venezuela's entire oil industry will be quite lengthy. In the short term, oil prices will still be mainly influenced by OPEC+ policies, Russian exports, and changes in global demand, rather than shifts in Venezuela's political situation.