Daily Review: Market Atmosphere Weak, Carbon Black Prices Consolidate Narrowly in Short Term

Market Overview: On July 1, carbon black market prices remained stable. New coal tar prices in surrounding regions rose yesterday, and there is still short-term upward potential in the coal tar market. Support from the raw material side for carbon black remains relatively strong, and cost pressure is evident, making it difficult for carbon black prices to either rise or fall. At present, the mainstream transaction intention range for carbon black N330 is around RMB 7,400–7,500/mt, with some individual offers also appearing at both higher and lower levels. On the production side, the impact of output increases this week may outweigh capacity reductions caused by maintenance shutdowns, and the average operating rate of the carbon black industry is temporarily estimated at 67%–68%. On the demand side, downstream enterprises, due to pressure from digesting their own inventories, tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and hope for price declines in carbon black. Negotiations have been sluggish, and demand for carbon black remains weak. Under intense competitive pressure, some carbon black producers are keeping prices nominally stable while secretly offering discounts to promote shipments.

Carbon black regional prices: unit (yuan/ton)

Market outlook: In the short term, the upward momentum in the coal tar market is expected to narrow, while the raw material support for carbon black remains strong and cost pressure is still significant. On the production side, there were scattered production cuts and adjustments this week, but the average operating rate of carbon black producers is expected to remain at a medium-to-high level. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious and wait-and-see, negotiations for bulk orders have been postponed, and sporadic small orders continue to face price pressure. Meanwhile, due to ample supply in the carbon black market, sellers are somewhat passive in negotiations. Carbon black prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with mainstream delivered negotiation prices for carbon black N330 referenced at around RMB 7,300-7,500/tonne. It is recommended to pay attention to trends in the raw material market, changes in carbon black supply and demand, and subsequent macroeconomic impacts.