Geopolitical Concerns Continue To Ease, International Oil Prices Drop, Plastics Futures All Down

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On November 25th, there are rumors that Ukraine has agreed to a new peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine proposed by the United States, further easing geopolitical concerns and leading to a drop in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures for the January contract fell by $0.89 per barrel to $57.95, a decrease of 1.51% compared to the previous period. The ICE Brent crude oil futures for the January contract fell by $0.89 per barrel to $62.48, a decrease of 1.40% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2601 contract rose by 1.8 to 447.4 yuan per barrel, while the night session fell by 4.4 to 443 yuan per barrel.

Market Forecast

Oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations for three consecutive trading days, closing with long lower shadows, indicating that the market remains vigilant about the situation. On one hand, there are concerns that once a peace plan is reached, the lifting of sanctions on Russia could lead to an overwhelming supply pressure in the oil market (this is the main logic behind market trading). On the other hand, the market is also skeptical about the smooth implementation of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan. If it falls through, it would inevitably trigger a rebound in market sentiment, resulting in a high degree of uncertainty in the oil market, with significant volatility possible at any time. While maintaining a bearish outlook overall, it is crucial to strengthen risk control and participate cautiously.

II. Macroeconomic Dynamics

1. Russia-Ukraine Situation - ① U.S. officials say,Ukraine has agreed in principle to the peace agreement proposed by the United States.Some terms still need to be discussed. Ukrainian officials said that Ukraine and the United States have reached a consensus on the core terms of the peace agreement discussed in Geneva recently.

Zelensky: Will continue negotiations with the United States on the peace plan.

③ Trump:The peace agreement is very close to being reached.Only a few minor differences remain, and American personnel have been assigned to negotiate with both Russia and Ukraine.

According to reportsZelensky hopes to meet with Trump on the 27th.Finalize the peace agreement.

2. Federal Reserve - ① Milan: EconomySubstantial interest rate cuts are needed.The rise in unemployment rate is due to overly tight monetary policy.

② Besant revealed,It is very likely that Trump will announce the new chairman candidate before Christmas.The message statesHassett stood out among the five candidates.There are also reports that there is no frontrunner.

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on November 25, a reporter asked about the results of the phone call between the Chinese and U.S. Presidents on the evening of the 24th, according to information released by China. In response, spokesperson Mao Ning stated that since President Trump's second term, the Chinese and U.S. Presidents have maintained regular interactions. It is understood that this call was initiated by the U.S. side and the atmosphere was positive, friendly, and constructive. The two leaders communicated on issues of mutual concern, which is very important for the stable development of China-U.S. relations.

The China National Space Administration has issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)." The action plan states that a national commercial space development fund will be established, encouraging local governments, financial institutions, and social capital to jointly form investment platforms, guiding capital to adhere to long-term investment, strategic investment, and value investment.

Yesterday, the market was abuzz with the draft for public comment on the "Safety Technical Specification for Mobile Power Supplies." Compared to the old standards, the new national standard proposes dozens of stringent improvements in three major technical areas: the whole device, circuit board, and battery cell. In response, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's lithium-ion battery and similar products standard working group stated that the draft has not been finalized and the official content at that time shall prevail.

3. Early Morning Trends in the Plastic Market

Geopolitical concerns continue to ease, leading to a decline in international oil prices; overnight, domestic plastic futures main contracts are all in the red.

Plastic contract 2601 is priced at 6,699 yuan/ton, down 1.43% from the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is quoted at 6263 yuan/ton, down 1.45% compared to the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4,467 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous trading day.

The styrene January 2026 contract reported at 6,430 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply at the end of the month remains relatively abundant, and the supply pressure as a long-term factor persists. There is an expectation of a decline in the operating rates of some industries, such as packaging materials, pipes, and agricultural films, in the latter part of the month. Therefore, the willingness to stockpile at low prices is not high. Supported by just-in-time demand, upstream players are maintaining appropriate inventory levels. As a result, polyethylene market prices continue to operate at low levels, with fluctuations around 20 yuan/ton.

PP: The cost side provides limited guidance for PP, and from the demand side, the sentiment for purchasing raw materials downstream is currently limited, with many sticking to low-priced, just-in-time replenishment. Short-term demand is unlikely to show significant improvement, and insufficient follow-up from the end market is dragging down market trends. It is expected that the polypropylene market may continue to fluctuate at low levels today, with mainstream prices for East China wire drawing hovering weakly around 6300-6500 yuan/ton.

PVC: The production load of PVC manufacturing enterprises is expected to increase week-on-week, domestic demand remains stable, and the supply-demand market is in a stalemate. The short-term rebound sentiment in the market is driven by the fluctuations in the bulk commodity sector. In the short term, industrial cost support is strengthening, and industry expectations remain cautious. The spot market is expected to remain stable for the time being, with the East China region's carbide-based type 5 cash-on-delivery warehouse prices fluctuating in the range of 4450-4550 yuan/ton.