Major Commodities Giants Issue "Super Oversupply" Warning: Oil Prices Expected to Face Severe Hit Next Year!

Saad Rahim, the Chief Economist of commodity trading giant Trafigura, stated,Next year, the oil market will face a "super surplus" as a surge in new supply collides with a weak global economy.According to Rahim, the new drilling projects and the slowing demand growth will further depress the already sluggish crude oil prices next year.

“Whether it's surplus or super surplus, it's difficult to avoid."Rahim said this when the company released its annual performance."

Brent crude oilThis year has dropped 16%, set to record the worst annual performance since 2020.Oil prices are expected to be further suppressed as major projects, including those in Brazil and Guyana, come on stream next year.

The theory of oversupply is not new; banks like Citibank and Goldman Sachs have popularized it over the past year. Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven also wrote in his latest oil tracking report, "In the past 30 days,"Global visible oil inventories increased by nearly 2 million barrels per day.These banks anticipate that inventory will continue to grow significantly in the coming years.

The U.S. government has also been trying to maintain low oil prices, with President Trump pledging to "drill, baby, drill" to boost American production. There is speculation that the U.S. will replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which has been largely depleted during Biden's tenure, but since this would quickly drive up prices, it remains pure speculation for now. Meanwhile,The United States has virtually no reserves to handle a real emergency.。

Ben Luckock, the head of oil trading at Trafigura, stated in October.He anticipated that the oil price might fall below $60 per barrel before rebounding, saying, "I suspect that sometime during Christmas and New Year, the oil price will enter the $50 range."

Toke reported a net profit for the fiscal year ending in September.$2.7 billion...slightly below the previous year's $2.8 billion, marking a five-year low. Previously,...Due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most commodity traders made a substantial profit by violating sanctions, resulting in years of lucrative returns.

According to sources familiar with the matter,The non-ferrous metals trading division reported a record-breaking year.Part of the reason is due to the disruption caused by drastic fluctuations in tariff rules, making it profitable to transport copper to the United States.

Richard Holtum, CEO of Tok, stated, ""Significant news-driven volatility" has been the main driving force of the market this year, and this trend will continue into 2026.

"Last year's trading environment was not easy, and our trading team demonstrated truly convincing performance in all departments," Holtum said.

However, a slight decline in profits, coupled with increased payments to Troc employee shareholders, meant that the group's equity dropped slightly from $16.3 billion the previous year to $16.2 billion, marking the first contraction since 2018.

Payments to employees rose to $2.9 billion, up from $2 billion the previous year. The company, whose executive team is based in Geneva, pays "dividends" to its employee shareholders, including through long-term buybacks of shares from departing employees.