Nvidia Drags Down U.S. Stocks! International Oil Prices Fall, Plastic Futures Main Contracts All Rise

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

The United States proposed a new plan to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reducing concerns about geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $0.30/barrel to $59.14, a decrease of 0.50% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the January contract fell by $0.13/barrel to $63.38, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2601 contract fell by 8.2 to 455 yuan/barrel, with a night session drop of 3.3 to 451.7 yuan/barrel.

Market Forecast

Oil prices continued to decline, initially showing some recovery from the previous day's drop, but during the night session, they retraced nearly 2% from the day's high following a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, ultimately closing lower as market sentiment cooled again.

The news of secret negotiations between the U.S. and Russia to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict surprised the market on Wednesday. However, based on information gathered from the market, there are still many details that need further clarification regarding the feasibility of the so-called peace plan containing 28 points. The market remains cautious about this. The Ukrainian side stated that Zelensky has received a draft of the U.S. peace plan and will consult with Trump over the phone. Since there was no strong opposition expressed, this plan is expected to bring a breakthrough in the long-stalled diplomatic process. Zelensky made it clear that Ukraine is willing to engage in constructive cooperation with the U.S., Europe, and global partners to jointly promote the peace process. Additionally, on Thursday, there were rumors in the market that China has started issuing early batches of non-state crude oil import quotas for 2026. Although no official information has been released yet, this news has somewhat boosted market sentiment.

In the evening, the United States reported a surge of 119,000 in September's non-farm employment numbers, far exceeding economists' expectations of 50,000, with the previous value revised down to a decrease of 4,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, higher than the anticipated 4.3%, with different trends shown by two survey sources, making the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month more complex. The biggest fluctuations occurred late at night, with U.S. stocks plummeting again, sparking financial market concerns and continuing to cool risk appetite, with commodities such as crude oil and copper affected and following the downturn. Although oil prices closed lower, the oil market spread did not weaken simultaneously, indicating that disruptions on the supply side caused by sanctions and geopolitical factors remain troubling. In recent times, numerous uncertainties have led to fluctuating oil price trends, but over time it can be seen that the overall direction of oil prices continues to slowly shift downward. The tug-of-war pattern will persist, and it is still recommended to focus on short-selling opportunities after price surges, paying attention to timing and participating cautiously.

II. Macroeconomic Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve - ① Barr: Expressing concern that inflation remains at the 3% level.Support the labor market but need to restore inflation to 2%.

Hamak.Further interest rate cuts may prolong high inflation.and pose risks to financial stability.

Goolsbee:Concerns about the interest rate cut in DecemberUnwilling to overly bet on "transitory inflation." A 50-year mortgage could weaken the impact of monetary policy.

④ Cook: It would not be surprising if the asset prices at historical highs were to collapse.。

White House advisor Hassett: Data suggests we should cut interest rates at the next Federal Reserve meeting.

2. Japanese government advisor:Intervention may be triggered before the yen falls to 160.

The Central Bank of Argentina lowered the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 20%.

Major U.S. media outlets report that large American banks have shelved a $20 billion aid plan for Argentina.

Ministry of Education: The number of college graduates in 2026 is expected to reach 12.7 million.

In September, the domestic market shipped 27.931 million mobile phones, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.

7. Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Adjusts the trading fee standards and trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts.

The industry association will propose setting a cost baseline to regulate pricing, and the lithium iron phosphate industry is advancing efforts to counteract excessive competition.

The Ministry of Commerce: At present, China is strictly following the consensus reached during the China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations to implement relevant work.

The Ministry of Commerce: We hope the Dutch side will take concrete actions to quickly and effectively facilitate the early resolution of the Nexperia issue.

The Ministry of Commerce: If the Japanese side persists in going further down the wrong path, the Chinese side will firmly take necessary measures.

During his research in Hubei and Hunan, He Lifeng emphasized the continuous promotion of improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade and the clearance of bottlenecks in the construction of a unified national market.

Wang Wentao held a video conference with UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch.

Wang Wentao met with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, expressing concerns about U.S. unilateral tariffs, export controls, restrictions on bilateral investment, visa reviews, and restrictive clauses in U.S. trade agreements with third parties, as well as clarifying China's position on issues such as Anshi Semiconductor.

15、NVIDIA has caused a crash in the US stock market.NVIDIA's positive performance was short-lived, U.S. stocks The S&P plunged, dropping over 3% from its intraday high, marking the biggest intraday reversal since the tariff storm in April. Nvidia rose over 5% intraday before closing down over 3%.

3. Plastic Market Morning Update

Geopolitical risk concerns have eased, leading to a decline in international oil prices. Overnight, the main contracts of domestic plastic futures turned red.

The plastic 2601 contract is reported at 6817 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is reported at 6398 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4482 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous trading day.

Styrene 2601 contract reported at 6611 yuan/ton, up 0.58% compared to the previous trading day.

Market Forecast

PE: The soft demand on the demand side has become the core bottleneck constraining the market recovery. The downstream plastic products industry is experiencing weak overall demand due to the combined impact of lower seasonal temperatures and the traditional off-peak demand season. End-user consumption in daily plastic products and disposable items is sluggish, with order volumes declining year-on-year. Companies are actively reducing raw material procurement to manage inventory. The automotive plastic parts sector is affected by the slowdown in vehicle production and sales growth, leading to insufficient demand for supporting products like bumpers and interior components. Downstream factories are maintaining low operating rates and are only making rigid purchases of PE raw materials. In the packaging and injection molding sectors, there is inadequate follow-up on end-user orders, and companies mainly focus on replenishing inventory as needed and digesting their own stock, showing a lack of willingness to actively increase inventory. At the same time, there has been no significant improvement in the export market, and weak external demand further weakens the demand-side support. Overall, the current core contradiction of market supply and demand imbalance is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The situation of ample supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support is expected to persist, and it is anticipated that the polyethylene market will maintain a weak and fluctuating operational trend in the short term.

PP: On the demand side, the weak situation is evident. Downstream factories are constrained by winter environmental protection and energy consumption-related policies, leading to limited operations for some enterprises. Additionally, the traditional off-season of the industry further affects procurement enthusiasm, which is generally low, focusing mainly on rigid, demand-based purchasing, with insufficient follow-up on new orders. The contradiction between supply and demand has not been alleviated. Overall, the current polypropylene market lacks strong supporting factors, with negative factors dominating. The core imbalance between supply and demand is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that in the short term, the market will continue to operate in a volatile and weak manner. If no substantial favorable policies are introduced or demand stimulus signals are released, the market is likely to continue the weak adjustment trend.

PVC: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and the overall commodity trend is currently sluggish, with most commodities also experiencing declines recently. On the international front, crude oil futures prices have fallen as the market believes efforts by the U.S. to restart Russia-Ukraine peace talks have alleviated some market risk premiums. However, official data showing an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week has limited the drop in oil prices. Overall, the PVC spot market is still facing certain challenges in the short term.