[PVC Daily Review] Expectations Disappointing, PVC Fluctuates at Low Levels

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC producers have slightly reduced their ex-factory prices by 20-50 yuan/ton.

2. Zhenyang is under maintenance, Yibin is on standby, Hanwha will undergo maintenance next week. 。

③、 The Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision is approaching, providing a key window for global risk assets.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, today's cash price for acetylene PVC type 5 in the East China region is 4,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market is fluctuating and declining, with a weak supply and demand situation. Supply remains high, domestic trade demand shows no highlights, and price competition in the export market continues. Macroeconomic expectations are performing poorly in the short term, and transaction prices are fluctuating and seeking lower levels during trading. In the East China region, the carbide method Type 5 spot cash pickup is at 4360-4500 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method is at 4400-4600 yuan/ton.

3. Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The PVC basis in the East China region for the 01 contract is in the +50/-60 range, and the market basis has narrowed.

Figure 3 PVC Basis Trend in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

Zhenyang's 300,000-ton facility is under maintenance and is expected to resume operations by this weekend. 。

Figure 4: Linkage Trend Between Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

Recently, the domestic PVC market has continued its downward trend, mainly due to pressure on the supply-demand structure, industry stockpiling, and poor long-term expectations. In the short term, changes in market supply structure are limited, with no significant production reduction trends yet, and both domestic and foreign trade remain stable. The bottom cost support for PVC has strengthened, which to some extent supports the PVC price to fluctuate weakly within a narrow low range. It is expected that in the East China region, the cash-extracted price for acetylene-based PVC Type 5 will fluctuate in the range of 4360-4460 yuan/ton.

6. Related Products

Calcium Carbide Domestic Calcium CarbideThe mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region is quoted at 2550 yuan/ton, with strong cost support. 。

Ethylene ： CFR Northeast Asia is $745/ton, up $5/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is $725/ton, up $5/ton; ethylene method costs remain strong and are trending higher. 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview