Russia's attacked oil port resumes exports, international crude oil rises, plastics weaken and fluctuate

I. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On November 14, there are still no signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to ongoing potential supply risks and an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for December rose by $1.40 per barrel to $60.09, a week-on-week increase of 2.39%. ICE Brent crude futures for January rose by $1.38 per barrel to $64.39, a week-on-week increase of 2.19%. China's INE crude oil futures for the January 2026 contract rose by 1.4 to 458.9 yuan per barrel, with a night session increase of 4.7 to 463.6 yuan per barrel.

Market Outlook

According to Kpler data, global crude oil market inventories have continued to accumulate over the past three weeks, increasing by about 50 million barrels. Meanwhile, the amount of crude oil on water has also continuously reached new highs, with an increase of as much as 170 million barrels since the beginning of September. This indicates that the pressure of oversupply in the crude oil market is continuously increasing. Bloomberg reports that the ongoing increase in global maritime crude oil supply has led to a shortage of available vessels, driving the cost of transporting oil on supertankers to a five-year high. The benchmark price for renting a vessel capable of transporting 2 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia to China rose by more than $36,000 in just three days to nearly $126,000 per day, the highest level since April 2020.

Considering the overall assessment, the supply surplus in the crude oil market naturally drives oil prices downward, but factors such as sanctions against Russia, attacks on energy facilities, and geopolitical factors continuously inject uncertainty into the market, partially offsetting the downward pressure from the supply surplus. This results in oil prices maintaining a fluctuating and repetitive pattern for some time. Given the numerous uncertainties, especially the risks and disturbances on the geopolitical front, oil prices will continue to exhibit high volatility. It is important to pay attention to the rhythm and timing.

Section 2: Macro Market Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve - ① It is difficult to support a rate cut in December, as it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts.

2. Governor Milan: Data supports a rate cut, the Federal Reserve should be more dovish.

③SchmidtFurther interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; my concerns about inflation go far beyond the issue of tariffs.

4. Market News: Former Federal Reserve Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning.

2. Global Trade Situation - ① The U.S. government is removing some agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list.

The Swiss-American trade agreement has been basically reached, and the tariff rate for Switzerland will be 15%.

South Korea and the United States sign a $350 billion investment agreement.

The Thai government: Thailand-U.S. tariff negotiations will continue to advance.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney: U.S. tariffs will cost Canada 50 billion Canadian dollars.

After a two-day suspension,The Novorossiysk port in Russia resumed oil loading operations on Sunday.。

4、Trump said the United States will conduct nuclear tests.According to reports, U.S. Department of Energy officials plan to dissuade this.

According to reports.Huawei to Release Breakthrough Technology in the Field of AIIt is expected to solve the problem of efficient utilization of computing power resources.

6、Yuyuan Tantian: China is prepared to take substantive countermeasures against Japan.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises against traveling to Japan in the near future. Several airlines have issued notices on the same day: tickets to Japan can be changed or refunded for free. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism solemnly advises Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently. The Ministry of Education has issued a study abroad warning, suggesting that Chinese citizens carefully plan their arrangements to study in Japan.

3. Plastic Market Dynamics

On the Friday night session, international crude oil prices closed higher, and the main contracts of plastic-related futures fluctuated.

Plastic contract 2601 reported at 6849 yuan/ton, down 0.16% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is quoted at 6470 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous trading day.

Styrene contract 2601 is quoted at 6564 yuan/ton, up 1.03% compared to the previous trading day.

Section 4: Today's Market Forecast

PE: On the supply side, unplanned maintenance of production facilities has decreased, resulting in a relaxed market supply and an imbalance between supply and demand. As imported goods arrive in large quantities, the increase in supply will continue to exert significant pressure on demand. The demand side maintains a focus on replenishing stocks as needed, which is unlikely to provide substantial support to the market trend. It is expected that the polyethylene market will remain in a weak state this week.

PP: From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the new Dongguan Juzhengyuan with a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons is undergoing maintenance, and the recent shutdown impact has increased to 17.00%. The tightening of local supply has improved market sentiment. On the demand side, a wait-and-see attitude still exists as the Double Eleven shopping festival comes to an end, and terminal demand gradually transitions to the off-season. Currently, demand is mainly supported by rigidity. It is expected that the polypropylene market will stabilize and stop declining this week.

PVC: From the perspective of the spot market fundamentals, market prices remain under pressure and weak. However, considering force majeure and policy fluctuations, the spot market is expected to remain stable within a certain range. In the East China region, the cash price for acetylene-based Type 5 is fluctuating in the range of 4,500-4,650 yuan/ton.