U.S. and Russia Secretly Draft 28-Point Peace Talks Framework Bypassing Ukraine; International Oil Prices Plunge, Plastics Generally in the Red

1. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

November 19: The possibility of recent peace talks between Russia and Ukraine still exists, coupled with the continued atmosphere of OPEC+ increasing production, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $1.30 per barrel to $59.44, a decrease of 2.14% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the January contract fell by $1.38 per barrel to $63.51, a decrease of 2.13% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.9 to 463.2 yuan per barrel, with the night session down by 7.4 to 455.8 yuan per barrel.

Market outlook

Although oil prices have shown a complex and volatile trend in recent times, with a persistent seesaw pattern, the overall focus has still been slowly shifting downward under the pressure of oversupply. This is the objective manifestation of oil prices under the current complex situation. Considering that the uncertainty hovering over the oil market still requires time to be resolved, the seesaw rhythm of oil prices will continue. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities after price surges, although the timing appears to be temporarily delayed due to uncertain factors. Continue to patiently wait for the situation to become clearer and participate cautiously.

2. Macroeconomic Market Trends

Major developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation:It is reported that the U.S. and Russia have secretly drafted a framework for negotiations consisting of 28 points.The framework demands Ukraine to cede territory, reduce its military, and limit its weapons. The discussions of this framework have hardly sought the opinions of Ukraine or Europe. White House officials expect...Russia and Ukraine will reach a framework agreement by the end of November.According to reports.Ukraine opposes the agreement.

2. Federal Reserve - ① The U.S. authorities have canceled the October non-farm payroll report, and the November report has been rescheduled to be released on December 16.The Federal Reserve will lack the latest non-farm payroll data for reference during its December meeting.

Milan: It is "possible" to further reduce its balance sheet in the future.

If interest rates don't drop, it's time to fire Besson's squid, a joke by Trump that hints at Powell.

④The minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting show significant disagreements among officials.In the October rate cut action, several people opposed the rate cut, while some were inclined to cut rates but also accepted maintaining the rates unchanged. Some believed that the rate cut should continue in December, while many thought it should remain unchanged.

3. Informed sources:The Trump administration is considering delaying the imposition of tariffs on semiconductors.

4. Ministry of Commerce: China opposesThe Dutch side voluntarily suspends actions against Nexperia.The executive order was welcomed, and both parties agreed that administrative intervention should be abolished, supporting and promoting enterprises to resolve internal disputes through negotiation in accordance with the law.

5、NVIDIA's AI revenue and outlook both exceed expectations.Huang Renxun candidly said it sold like hotcakes.

III. Plastic Market Dynamics

Overnight, international crude oil prices plunged, and the main contracts for plastic-related futures generally fell.

Plastic contract 2601 is quoted at 6787 yuan/ton, down 0.38% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract reported at 6,381 yuan/ton, down 0.64% compared to the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4438 yuan/ton, down 1.55% compared to the previous trading day.

Styrene contract 2601 is quoted at 6535 yuan/ton, up 0.31% compared to the previous trading day.

IV. Today's Market Forecast

PP: Due to insufficient support from the demand side, market sentiment is leaning towards pessimism. Downstream consumer enterprises are purchasing on demand, and traders are offering discounts to close deals. Overall, transactions in the market are average, and market prices are showing a gradual downward trend. It is expected that the polypropylene market today may primarily exhibit weak consolidation, with market prices fluctuating around 6,350-6,550 RMB/ton.

PE: In the short term, on the cost side, there is room for a decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost support. On the supply side, some previously shut-down units have gradually resumed operation, leading to significant market supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream demand is limited, resulting in insufficient demand for raw materials. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction continues to intensify, and the short-term market price of polyethylene is expected to remain weak, with a range of 20-70 yuan/ton.

PVC: The domestic supply of PVC is sufficient, and there is no significant reduction in production in the short term. Domestic demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal influences. Prices have been continuously fluctuating downward during the day. With insufficient cost support and no relevant news expectations, the spot price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. In the East China region, the price of calcium carbide-based PVC is fluctuating in the range of 4450-4600 yuan/ton.