PVC Market Morning Update

FedExStarting in August 2026, [the company] announced that it will return in full the US$800 million in tariff refunds it received from the U.S. government to the shipping customers that actually paid the duties. The funds stem from tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and later ruled unlawful. Refunds will be issued on a priority basis to customers who authorize open data access, with the first batch expected to arrive around August 10. The company will launch a dedicated online platform on July 10 for customers to check the status of their refunds.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Today, the EU has lifted tariffs on imports of industrial products from the United States. This is a commitment made in the joint statement between the EU and the United States.

LyondellBasell (LYB) released its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. During the reporting period, the company recorded net income of $125 million, or diluted earnings per share of $0.38. Excluding $38 million in special items—primarily non-cash asset impairments, transaction expenses, and charges from discontinued operations, which impacted EPS by $0.11—adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reached $615 million, indicating a generally solid earnings performance. By segment, the Americas Olefins & Polyolefins (O&P) business delivered particularly strong results, with EBITDA doubling from the previous quarter. This was mainly driven by lower feedstock costs and higher product prices, which boosted integrated polyethylene margins and successfully offset the negative impact of the winter storm “Fenn” earlier in the year.

  July 1 news: At present, PVC fundamentals have shown no significant improvement. As July begins, the scale of scheduled maintenance among producers is shrinking, output is expected to increase, and demand is in the traditional off-season. On the cost side, the supply of the upstream raw material calcium carbide has tightened and prices have risen, strengthening support for PVC costs. PVC spot market prices are expected to remain firm and edge up slightly today. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in operating rates among marginal PVC producers.

  On July 1, according to foreign media reports, oil prices closed lower on Tuesday, marking the largest monthly and quarterly decline since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. Investors are closely watching the potential U.S.-Iran talks that may be held in Doha. UBS analysts stated that it is still too early to say that the market has fully absorbed the risk premium, but as ships are leaving the Gulf region, previously blocked vessels have resumed availability, and new supply is increasing. Morgan Stanley's model shows that the global oil market will experience a daily supply surplus of 4.8 million barrels in 2027. On Tuesday, the two major benchmark crude oil futures remained in technically oversold territory: Brent crude has been in this state for 13 consecutive days, and WTI crude for 11 consecutive days.