Affected by the decline in crude oil production in the Middle East,Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price outlook to $90 per barrel, and its U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast to $83 per barrel.。Current forecasts assume that the exit of the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June (previously forecast for mid-May), and that production recovery in the Gulf region will be slower.

On the evening of the 22nd local time, Iran's Islamic Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator, Qalibaf, stated that a comprehensive ceasefire would only make sense if the maritime blockade was lifted and "economic coercive actions" by the U.S. were stopped. He emphasized that it is impossible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again as the U.S. has openly violated the ceasefire agreement.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, stated on the 21st that the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is triggering the most severe energy crisis in history. Birol said that this energy crisis,**** the fuel and natural gas supply disruptions caused by the Ukraine crisis, has already caused significant impacts. He emphasized, “This is indeed the largest crisis in history.”

  April 20 – In early trading, SC crude oil futures opened significantly higher, narrowing the decline to 2.51%. According to Everbright Futures’ research report dated April 20, overall, the current crude oil supply imbalance exhibits structural divergence: Middle Eastern exports to external markets have declined, while exports from other regions—including temporary sales of Russian oil stored on vessels at sea—have increased, alongside a substantial rise in U.S. exports. Inventory levels also display structural divergence: with numerous tankers congested at the Strait of Hormuz, floating storage volumes—counted as part of total inventory—have risen, whereas onshore inventories are continuously being drawn down. Nonetheless, total inventory levels are expected to decline markedly. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern production and exports will undergo reassessment, all of which will impact crude oil pricing. From the current market perspective, an “information war” has emerged as an additional factor influencing oil prices, driving the price center lower. During the ceasefire negotiation period, it is certain that internal divisions within Iran have intensified—constituting a vulnerability for Iran and a strategic advantage for the U.S. Leveraging its media dominance, the U.S. is fostering market expectations of recurring geopolitical volatility to erode crude oil’s risk premium; in contrast, the fundamental supply-demand deficit remains a secondary pricing factor. Consequently, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

According to reports, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the EU will prepare to take joint action on aviation fuel.

WTI crude oil plunged 4.00% intraday, currently trading at $88.37 per barrel. Markets are reacting to former President Trump’s earlier statement that “the war between the U.S. and Iran is over.”

April 13,Domestic commodity futures opened lower, with the main contracts of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver falling more than 1% each. Internationally, spot gold once again fell below 4,700 USD per ounce, declining 1.08% on the day; spot silver was down 1.89%, at 74.398 USD per ounce. In addition, energy and chemical futures led the gains,Crude oil rose more than 4%, and low-sulfur fuel oil climbed over 3%; international oil prices surged significantly. On the news front, the United States and Iran failed to reach any agreement during negotiations in Islamabad. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media on the 12th stating that the U.S. Navy would begin blocking vessels from entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

、According to foreign media reports, U.S. crude oil futures experienced sharp volatility on Thursday, closing up more than 11%, while Brent crude prices surged nearly 8%. This followed U.S. President Trump’s statement on Wednesday that the United States would continue launching attacks against Iran, triggering traders’ concerns over potential prolonged disruptions to oil supplies. Trump indicated that the U.S. would intensify its military strikes against Iran but did not specify a timeline for ending the conflict nor disclose any measures that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. What traders are truly concerned about is that, if Iranian oil infrastructure is now at risk and further damage to the region is likely, the timeline for resuming oil transportation in the area could be further delayed—even if the infrastructure remains intact.

WTI crude oil surged over 13% intraday, continuing its short-term upward momentum, and is currently trading at $112.42 per barrel.

  April 1: According to foreign media reports, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports dropped by half in March due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the country to reroute shipments to its west coast. Tanker-tracking data shows that average exports for the month stood at 3.33 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with 6.66 million bpd in February. Without the ability to transfer crude oil to Red Sea export terminals, this decline would have been even steeper. Following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Saudi Arabia swiftly shifted crude oil exports from Gulf terminals to its east-west pipeline. This pipeline transports crude oil from eastern Saudi oilfields to refineries and ports along the Red Sea coast, with a transport capacity of approximately 7 million bpd. When operating at full capacity, the pipeline supplies around 5 million bpd of crude oil available for export from Yanbu, while the remainder is allocated to refineries near Riyadh and along the west coast, or used for power generation and seawater desalination facilities along the Red Sea coast.

According to U.S. media on the 30th, some Gulf countries including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia hope the United States continues to wage war on Iran, with the UAE "strongly pushing" for a U.S. ground war, and Kuwait and Bahrain also supporting the move.

According to Israeli media, a fire broke out at the Haifa oil refinery in northern Israel today (March 30). (CCTV International News)

Caixin Global, March 28 — Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul stated on March 28 that, to address crises such as rising domestic fuel prices triggered by the Middle East situation, Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently engaged in active communication with relevant countries. According to the agreement recently reached with Iran, Thai oil tankers can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking at a press briefing held at the Government House, Anutin outlined the government’s measures to cope with fuel price volatility. He said the government will focus its efforts on four key areas going forward: diplomatic coordination, energy security, commodity price control, and livelihood protection, and called upon the public to jointly implement energy-saving measures. Thai Foreign Minister Sireethorn Lee-utai stated that Thailand has proposed convening a special ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting to discuss solutions for alleviating the tensions. Thailand currently maintains stable petroleum reserves, and the government is actively pursuing additional energy sources through diplomatic channels.

  March 24 (Korea News): According to Yonhap News Agency, as Iran’s prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts naphtha supply, the South Korean government is likely to implement naphtha export controls this week. On March 24, Yang Gi-wook, Director of the Industrial Resource Security Division at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE), held a press conference at the Government Complex in Sejong and stated that MOTIE is coordinating and communicating with relevant agencies regarding plans to impose naphtha export restrictions. Naphtha is a fundamental raw material for petrochemical products; South Korea sources 55% of its naphtha domestically from local refineries, with the remainder imported.

  March 19th, according to Reuters citing sources, the Yanbu port in Saudi Arabia has resumed oil loading operations. Previously, the Yanbu port suspended crude oil loading after the Saudi Ministry of Defense stated that it intercepted a ballistic missile over Yanbu city. After Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Yanbu port became one of the two remaining main export channels for Gulf Arab countries' oil. The Saudi Ministry of Defense earlier stated that a drone crashed at the SAMREF refinery, and the damage is currently being assessed.

The UAE's state-owned oil giant, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has been forced to implement widespread production shutdowns, causing the country's daily crude oil output to drop by more than half.

In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, and oil storage facilities are nearing capacity, forcing Gulf countries to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day; over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity have already been shut down.

On March 11, international oil prices continued to rise, with U.S. oil surging nearly 6% and Brent crude oil increasing by more than 5%.

According to informed officials,The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed releasing the largest oil reserve in history to curb the sharp rise in crude oil prices during the US-Iran war.Officials stated,This release will exceed the total 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two batches following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.The proposal was circulated at the emergency meeting of energy officials from IEA's 32 member countries on Tuesday.Countries are expected to decide on the proposal on Wednesday.If no country objects, the proposal will be adopted; however, if even one country raises an objection, the plan could be delayed.

The midday closing of the domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Caustic soda, Container Freight Index Europe, and PET all rose more than 7%, while PVC, butadiene rubber, and paraxylene rose more than 5%. On the downside, SC crude oil fell more than 9%, lithium carbonate fell more than 5%, and fuel oil fell more than 4%.