U.S. crude oil main contract closed higher.3.74% 59.38 /Barrel; Brent crude oil main contract rises3.54% 63.49 / Trump cancels meeting with Putin.U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that significant sanctions against Russia are expected to be greatly strengthened.EIACrude oil inventory decreases96.1The price of oil is rising due to favorable factors on both the supply and demand sides.

According to the latest news from CCTV, local time22On [date], the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it will impose sanctions on two large Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil. The U.S. Department of the Treasury also sanctioned a series of subsidiaries in Russia that are directly or indirectly owned by these two companies.50%Entities with 50% or more equity will be sanctioned.

  10月15日讯，期货日报10月15日文章显示，“目前，全球原油市场供大于求的局面难以改变。”申银万国期货原油高级分析师董超表示，IEA预计四季度供应过剩可能在200万桶/日以上。“在供应过剩阴霾笼罩、需求端又缺乏强劲支撑的背景下，国际油价偏弱运行的态势短期内难以扭转，多家机构预测国际油价可能在四季度进一步下探。”海通期货研究所原油研究员赵若晨表示，未来需要重点关注OPEC+在11月2日召开的产量会议。尽管OPEC+目前坚持增产，但其公告中也强调会“保持充分的灵活性”，因此油价持续下跌后OPEC+是否会调整甚至暂停其增产计划，将是市场短期关注的焦点。宏观环境也会对原油市场产生重要影响，中美贸易谈判的后续发展、美国联邦政府“停摆”情况和美联储降息路径是中期市场关注的焦点。

  10月13日讯，欧佩克周一表示，维持今年及明年的全球原油需求增长预期不变，并预计随着欧佩克+加快增产步伐，2026年的市场供应缺口将明显缩小。欧佩克+近期加大原油供应力度，此前该组织决定比原计划更快地撤销部分减产措施。欧佩克周一报告指出，虽然原油需求预计保持稳定，但欧佩克+在9月将日产量提高了63万桶至4305万桶，反映出此前已批准的增产配额落实情况。根据路透社基于报告的计算结果，若欧佩克+维持9月的产量水平，市场对欧佩克+原油的平均需求约为每日4310万桶，意味着全球石油市场的供应缺口仅为每日5万桶。相比之下，上月报告显示，若维持8月的产量水平，2026年预计将出现每日70万桶的供应缺口。

  On October 11, international oil prices fell significantly on the 10th. As of the close of trading that day, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $2.61, closing at $58.90 per barrel, a decline of 4.24%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell by $2.49, closing at $62.73 per barrel, a decrease of 3.82%.

  Three informed sources indicate that OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the organization to attempt to regain market share. Since April, OPEC+ has changed its production cut strategy and has cumulatively raised quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand, in an effort to expand market share. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on October 5, involving eight member countries, to decide on production arrangements for November. OPEC headquarters and Saudi authorities did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

  On September 26, foreign media reported that due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower crude oil prices from the Middle East, as well as its geographic proximity to the world's main demand areas compared to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the arbitrage window for U.S. crude oil shipments to Asia may soon close. According to data from the Baltic Exchange, in recent weeks, the rental rates for supertankers (i.e., Very Large Crude Carriers capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil) from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia have surged to $70,000 per day. In contrast, the rental rates for supertankers on the route from the Middle East to China are higher, around $90,000 per day, with some recent transactions even reaching $100,000. However, the journey from the Middle East to Asia is about two weeks shorter than from the U.S. to Asia. Therefore, analysts believe that the transportation costs for U.S. crude oil may soon become uneconomical, effectively closing the arbitrage window.

Bloomberg News cited sources familiar with the India-U.S. negotiations as saying that India has informed the United States.To stop India from importing Russian oil, the oil embargoes on Iran and Venezuela must be lifted.

  On September 19, according to the Financial Times, U.S. senators are seeking to increase financial pressure on Russia, targeting Moscow's energy exports. A new bill set to be submitted on Friday will significantly expand U.S. sanctions against Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers—since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Moscow has been using this fleet to evade Western restrictions on its energy sector. Revenues from these crude oil exports have become one of the sources of funding for Moscow's actions. "Shadow" tankers are often older vessels with hidden ownership information, making enforcement of sanctions more challenging. However, it has been shown that sanctions targeting these vessels themselves are effective. Meanwhile, EU ambassadors are scheduled to hold a meeting on Friday afternoon in Brussels to discuss a new round of sanctions proposed by the European Commission, which targets both Russian oil and gas production.

  On September 18, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by concerns about demand from the world's largest oil consumer, the United States. The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate as widely expected by the market, and indications of more rate cuts before the end of the year have raised the prospect of stimulating demand by lowering borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points and hinted at steadily lowering borrowing costs for the rest of the year. Lower borrowing costs typically stimulate oil demand. Rystad Energy Chief Economist and Director of Global Market Analysis Claudio Galimberti stated in a client report that the hint of further lowering borrowing costs suggests that the Federal Reserve views the risk to the economy from unemployment as far greater than the risk from inflation. He said, "Particularly for Brent crude prices... the rate cut and the expectation of two more rate cuts before the end of the year will be bullish factors, which to some extent offset the bearish impact of OPEC+'s strategy to slow the pace of production increases." The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week as net imports dropped to a record low and exports surged to a nearly two-year high.

  On September 16, it was reported that OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna this week to conduct preliminary discussions on updating the procedure for estimating member countries' production capacity. Sources said the meeting is scheduled for September 18-19. The representatives hope to reach an agreement on the mechanism for assessing the maximum sustainable crude oil production capacity of each member country. The OPEC+ Secretariat aims to submit a feasible plan to the OPEC+ ministers by the end of the year. This alliance of 22 oil-producing countries plans to use production capacity estimates to determine new production baselines and calculate production targets for 2027. OPEC+ originally planned to implement the new production baseline in 2025, but due to internal disagreements, the implementation was postponed first to 2026 and then further delayed to 2027.

  September 11th news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year on Thursday, after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The IEA also raised its forecast for demand growth, citing the resilience of oil deliveries in developed economies. The IEA revised its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day previously to 2.7 million barrels per day, and increased its oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA stated: "The oil market is being pulled by multiple forces, on one hand, there is the potential loss of supply due to new sanctions on Russia and Iran, and on the other hand, there is the increase in OPEC+ production and the growing surplus of global oil inventory."

Senior executives in the global petrochemical industry have warned that U.S. tariff policies are placing even greater pressure on an already struggling sector. Executives from TotalEnergies pointed out at the Asia-Pacific Oil and Chemical Conference that the trade disruptions caused by the Trump tariffs could lead to a 15% decline in global petrochemical trade volumes. Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, Head of Petrochemical Trading at TotalEnergies, said during the conference, “If the tariffs remain in place, transaction prices for petrochemical products will drop by another 15%. Over the past five years, due to overcapacity, total trade volumes have already fallen by 34%.”

On April 22, local time, the International Monetary Fund released the latest World Economic Outlook report, lowering its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%. The projection for 2026 is expected to be 3%. The impact of U.S. tariff measures and policy uncertainties will lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy in the short term.

OPEC(OPEC) has consecutively************************************ (OPEC) has consecutively************************************ It has continuously****ed the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year. (OPEC) has consecutively reduced its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next year., refers to the U.S. President Trump'sReciprocal tariffs are significantly suppressing consumption.According to a report from OPEC's Vienna Secretariat, the organization has cut its daily demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by approximately 100,000 barrels each, with global demand expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (about 1%) in each of those years.