On April 1, 2025, global energy giant Shell officially announced that it had completed the sale of its energy and chemical park in Singapore to a joint venture formed by commodities trader Glencore and Indonesian chemical manufacturer PT Chandra Asri Pacific. This transaction marks an important step for Shell in optimizing its global asset allocation and focusing on its core business strategy, while also injecting new vitality into Singapore's chemical industry.According to Shell's statement, this transaction involves Shell's entire stake in the energy and chemical park in Singapore, including refining and chemical assets located on Bukom Island and Jurong Island. These assets are an important part of Shell's layout in the Asian region and are also one of the largest integrated energy and chemical complexes in Singapore. However, specific financial details, such as the transaction amount and terms, were not disclosed in the statement by Shell.Shell stated that this sale is part of its global strategic adjustment, aimed at optimizing asset allocation to enhance the company's operational efficiency and profitability. At the same time, Shell emphasized that it will continue to seek suitable asset allocation opportunities worldwide to achieve the company's long-term strategic goals. Regarding the sale of the Singapore Energy and Chemicals Park, Shell indicated that this decision was made after careful consideration, and the company believes that this transaction will bring a win-win outcome for both Shell and the buyer.Globally renowned commodity trader Glencore and PT Chandra Asri Pacific, as buyers in this transaction, have undoubtedly become among the greatest beneficiaries. Glencore’s acquisition will solidify its prominent position in Singapore, one of the world's premier refining and trading hubs. Meanwhile, as an Indonesian chemical manufacturer, PT Chandra Asri Pacific stands to gain from this acquisition by expanding its market share in Singapore and enhancing its overall competitiveness.For Singapore, this transaction also brings positive effects. The sale of the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park will attract more international capital and technology into Singapore's chemical industry, promoting the upgrading and development of the industry. At the same time, the establishment of new joint ventures will create more job opportunities and tax revenue for Singapore, fostering local economic prosperity.It is worth noting that while the specific financial details of this transaction have not been disclosed, market analysis suggests that it likely involves a substantial amount of money. Shell, as a global energy giant, has valuable assets in its energy and chemical park in Singapore. Meanwhile, Glencore and PT Chandra Asri Pacific, as financially strong buyers, also have the financial capability to complete this transaction.

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Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Chesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Chollesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe 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Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe 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group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of the second Cholesthe group of theAt a recent meeting of the Dallas Fed Energy Advisory Council, industry executives expressed that companies will continue to maintain a cautious attitude toward production growth, focusing on capital discipline and sustaining investments. This reflects the current robust attitude of the oil and gas industry—in an era facing dual uncertainties in supply and demand, maintaining financial stability is far more important than pursuing expansion through excessive investment.Capital expenditures are the lifeblood of the energy industry: capital expenditures in the upstream oil and gas sector are primarily used for maintaining and expanding production scales, purchasing asset equipment, and exploring new reserves, specifically covering drilling and completion, construction of oilfield roads and power facilities, geological surveys, and exploration wells in new blocks.The outlook for capital expenditure is important because it directly impacts future oil and gas supply, which in turn influences current and long-term energy price trends. Given the foundational role of energy in the global economy, industry dynamics have significant spillover effects on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, and inflation.From the bank's perspective, capital expenditure holds special significance. Oil and gas companies often need to invest huge upfront costs, and the investment payback period is long, making them highly reliant on equity financing and debt financing. Bank loans are especially an important financing channel for small and medium-sized producers—these companies typically have limited business scale, weak operating cash flow, high leverage ratios, and are more susceptible to price fluctuations due to a lack of vertical integration capabilities.The oil and gas industry is characterized by significant cyclicality, with price fluctuations leading to boom and bust cycles that are often exacerbated by changes in global demand and the叠加 of geopolitical factors. For example, during the oil price collapse from 2014 to 2016 (from $93 per barrel to $43 per barrel), the industry experienced a wave of bankruptcies, resulting in deteriorating credit quality and loan portfolio performance for banks with high exposure to oil and gas risks.The subsequent period of low oil prices continues to impact the upstream oil and gas industry. Although structural adjustments have been made through bankruptcies and industry consolidation, most surviving companies have only recently been able to shake off the long-term state of weak profitability, yet仍然 burdened with tight liquidity and high leverage.Since 2010, the strategic focus of the upstream oil and gas industry has shifted from capacity expansion to maximizing free cash flow, with capital expenditure entering a rational phase. Although global demand recovery in 2022, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, drove upstream investment back up to $514 billion, this figure is still about $70 billion lower than the peak during the U.S. shale boom in 2011, according to estimates by the International Energy Forum. The reasons for this can be attributed to significant cost reductions and improved oilfield efficiency, along with the industry achieving positive operating cash flow during the recovery period, which together have contributed to the improvement of oil and gas companies' balance sheets.However, despite the gradual recovery of the industry’s balance sheets and a more rational approach to capital budgeting, the global oil and gas market still needs to be vigilant about two key risk points—price volatility and financing conditions.The oil and gas market is highly volatile, with price fluctuations potentially triggered by geopolitical events, supply and demand imbalances, natural disasters, and policy adjustments. Sudden price drops or surges can directly impact corporate financial stability. For banks exposed to industry risks, this could lead to a surge in loan defaults and an increase in credit risk. Historical experience shows that downturns in the oil and gas market are often accompanied by waves of bankruptcies and deteriorating asset quality in banks.Since the end of 2022, OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) has persistently implemented production cuts to stabilize prices. The current voluntary reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day is set to phase out by December 2026, but the policy duration could be extended or intensified if member countries reach a consensus. Uncertainties in the crude oil market partly stem from OPEC's dilemma: increasing production would heighten risks if global demand weakens, but sustained output reductions could impact the fiscal balance of oil-producing nations.At the same time, the oil and gas industry, as a capital-intensive field, often has project profitability cycles that last for years or even decades. The smoothness of financing channels is crucial for maintaining operations and achieving growth. Changes in the source and scale of financing will affect the long-term survival capabilities of enterprises, thereby altering the industry's credit landscape. Notably, private equity financing has recovered post-pandemic, while capital expenditure has shown a contraction trend. Given the significant reduction in the number of unfinished wells, the industry may need to increase investment in exploration and development, which will lead to a higher reliance on external financing.Although the oil and gas industry has recovered from the pandemic's impact and practiced capital discipline, the development trends in these areas still require continuous attention. Author: Gao Xing, Senior Market Analysis Expert at ZhuanSu Vision

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market DynamicsOn April 1st, the market's focus shifted from production sanctions to US tariff policies, raising concerns about the impact on demand prospects, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract for May dropped by $0.28 per barrel to $71.20, a decrease of -0.39%; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for June also fell by $0.28 per barrel to $74.49, a decrease of -0.37%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for May rose by 11.6 to 549 yuan per barrel, with the night session increasing by 4.3 to 553.3 yuan per barrel.Outlook for the futureAfter several intraday surges, oil prices ultimately retreated, closing with a long upper shadow. Financial markets are increasingly shifting their attention to the upcoming tariff policy announcement by Trump, entering a risk-off mode with evident wait-and-see sentiment. For crude oil, geopolitical factors continue to influence the market. In the previous trading session, Trump's threats against Iran and Russia drove oil prices to rise more than expected. The uncertainty stemming from various factors has made investors more cautious in their participation.From a geopolitical perspective, Iran's strong response to Trump's "bombing threat" has heightened market tensions. The U.S. continues to advance sanctions against Iran, with the Department of Defense deploying additional air power to strengthen its military posture in the Middle East. The U.S. has sent a second aircraft carrier to the region. Meanwhile, regarding Trump's statement that Russian President Putin was "very angry," Russia has expressed its inability to accept the current U.S. stance, as it fails to address Moscow's concerns about resolving the root causes of the crisis.In addition, sources said that eight OPEC+ countries that have volunteered to cut production will hold a meeting on Thursday. Early API weekly data showed a significant build-up of 6.03 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding market expectations, which could help alleviate supply concerns to some extent. With many influencing factors recently and facing multiple variable choices, high oil price volatility will remain the norm; note要做好风险管理，谨慎参与。 It seems like there is a part in your text that did not get fully translated. Here is the full translation:In addition, sources said that eight OPEC+ countries that have volunteered to cut production will hold a meeting on Thursday. Early API weekly data showed a significant build-up of 6.03 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding market expectations, which could help alleviate supply concerns to some extent. With many influencing factors recently and facing multiple variable choices, high oil price volatility will remain the norm; note要做好风险管理，谨慎参与。The untranslated part "要做好风险管理，谨慎参与。" translates to "Note要做好风险管理，谨慎参与。" which means "Pay attention to risk management and participate cautiously." II. Macro Market Dynamics◎ US Trade Policy - ① Trump will deliver remarks in the White House Rose Garden at 4 AM Beijing Time on Thursday; ② Sources: Trump is unlikely to specify any details regarding tariffs on pharmaceuticals on Wednesday; ③ The Washington Post: White House aides have drafted a proposal that could impose around a 20% tariff on at least most imported goods; ④ The White House: Tariffs announced on Wednesday will take effect immediately; ⑤ The Wall Street Journal: The Office of the United States Trade Representative is preparing a new tariff option for Trump, which would be a broad tariff on certain countries, with a rate potentially not as high as the proposed 20% general tariff; ⑥ CNBC: Treasury Secretary Baesent stated that the tariffs announced on Wednesday will be a ceiling, and subsequent measures can be taken by various countries to seek reductions in tariffs.The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March recorded 51.2, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from February, reaching the highest level since December 2024, indicating that manufacturing production and business activities continue to expand at a faster pace.The central bank conducted 64.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations on April 1, while 37.79 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan. The central bank also disclosed that in March, the three policy banks fully repaid 200 billion yuan of the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL).According to the Ministry of Commerce, from January to February this year, China's total service imports and exports amounted to 1,309.56 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%. Travel services imports and exports reached 409.8 billion yuan, growing by 28.9%, making it the largest sector in service trade; among which, exports grew by 142.6%, and imports increased by 21.1%.◎ The Ministry of Commerce held a national teleconference on advancing the trade-in program for consumer goods, calling for accelerated efforts to promote the widespread use of smart consumer electronics and fully address bottlenecks hindering policy effectiveness.The eurozone's preliminary February CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and slowed to 2.2% year-over-year, both in line with market expectations. Services inflation continued to fall, with the March figure declining from 3.7% to 3.4%. The eurozone's unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in February, hitting a record low, while the market expected it to remain unchanged at 6.2%. Market bets suggest there is an approximately 80% chance that the ECB will cut rates again this month.◎ South Korea's exports in March increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while imports rose by 2.3%. Semiconductor exports grew by 11.9%, approaching the export record set in 2022. Automobile exports have rebounded for two consecutive months. Three, Plastic Market Morning Session DynamicsAfter oscillating, oil prices surged and then fell back. Overnight, the domestic plastic futures主力contract showed mixed performance.The 2505 plastic contract is quoted at 7,678 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day.PP2505 contract reported at 7341 yuan per ton, up 0.04% compared to the previous trading day.The PVC2505 contract is reported at 5063 yuan per ton, down 0.65% from the previous trading day. IV. Today's Market Forecast PE: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market may be affected by multiple factors. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in crude oil supply, U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and adjustments to OPEC+ policies for their impact on international oil prices. On the supply side, although there are expectations of new plant startups, the production increase will be limited in the short term, and overall supply is expected to remain relatively stable. However, it is necessary to continuously monitor the progress of new plant startups and the impact of changes in the international situation on imports. On the demand side, there is expected to be a marginal increase in demand from downstream sectors such as agricultural mulch films, packaging materials, and construction materials. However, factors such as overseas tariff hikes may limit the extent of growth to a certain degree. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to consolidate within a range in the short term.PP: On the raw material front, the crude oil market may be influenced by multiple intertwined factors, and attention should still be paid to changes in crude oil supply, U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and adjustments to OPEC+ policies, among other factors affecting international oil prices. On the supply side, there are currently no plans for changes to PP plant operations before the holiday, and the impact of PP plant shutdowns remains relatively high. It is expected that supply pressure in the market will be moderate, although polyolefin inventories at the two major oil companies have accumulated, leaving destocking pressure unresolved. On the demand side, PP demand before the holiday is likely to remain driven by rigid procurement, with limited new orders from downstream sectors and cautious purchasing sentiment. Although downstream operations are gradually ramping up, overall demand release remains slow. In summary, the polypropylene market is expected to experience upward consolidation in the short term.From a supply and demand perspective, the operating rate of chlor-alkali facilities remains high. The expectation of maintenance, which had been anticipated over time, has gradually diminished. Additionally, there are no major maintenance plans expected in the near term, keeping PVC supply relatively stable at a high level. For chlor-alkali companies, although PVC is individually loss-making, the profit situation for caustic soda is quite good. In terms of PVC downstream demand, it is currently only maintaining essential purchases, and after the price increases in both the spot and futures markets, downstream buyers have become less active, tending to place low bids for inventory replenishment. There are insufficient variable factors from the supply and demand side to drive prices. On the policy front, there were no significant directional influences in the first quarter, and given the tone of the real estate sector, PVC is unlikely to perform well. It is expected that in the short term, the spot market for PVC will continue to maintain a narrow range of adjustments. The current spot price for calcium carbide method No. 5 type PVC in East China is within the range of 4800-5000 yuan/ton.

On March 30, with the release of China Petroleum's annual report, the 2024 performance of the "Big Three" oil companies has been fully disclosed. The reports show that China Petroleum achieved operating revenue of 2.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 164.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. China Petrochemical achieved operating revenue of 3.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%. China National Offshore Oil Corporation achieved operating revenue of 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. In 2024, the combined net profit attributable to shareholders of the "Big Three" oil companies exceeded 352.925 billion yuan, equivalent to earning approximately 964 million yuan per day. China National Petroleum: Net profit increases by 2.0% against the trend, setting a new historical high for three consecutive years.In 2024, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) achieved operating revenue of 2.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, primarily due to declines in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, refined oil products, and other oil and gas products, as well as reduced sales volumes of gasoline and diesel. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 164.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, marking a third consecutive year of record highs despite a 2.5% year-on-year drop in oil prices. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) maintains robust financial conditions, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching a substantial 406.55 billion yuan. To actively reward shareholders, CNPC's board of directors has proposed distributing a cash dividend of RMB 0.25 per share (including applicable taxes) for the year-end of 2024, based on the total share capital at the end of 2024, with a total dividend payout of approximately RMB 45.755 billion. The annual dividend per share stands at RMB 0.47, with a payout ratio of 52.2%, and the total annual dividend payout amounts to around RMB 86.02 billion. Both the year-end and annual dividends per share have reached their highest levels in history for the same period. In terms of new energy business, China Petroleum is actively promoting a green and low-carbon transformation, relying on favorable conditions and concentrating advantageous resources to accelerate the development of its new energy business. In 2024, China Petroleum's wind and solar power generation reached 4.72 billion kilowatt-hours, a 116.2% increase from 2.18 billion kilowatt-hours in the same period last year; the newly added installed capacity for wind and solar power was 4.954 million kilowatts; new geothermal heating contracts signed covered an area of 75.12 million square meters. The first large-scale centralized wind power project in Jilin Oilfield and the first million-kilowatt-level photovoltaic power station in Golmud, Qinghai, were connected to the grid for power generation, while projects such as the Daqing Lindian wind and solar power generation and the 2.64 million-kilowatt new energy and integrated coal power carbon capture project in Karamay commenced construction. The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) business across the entire industrial chain is accelerating its development. In the refining, petrochemicals, and new materials business sectors, China Petroleum is actively transitioning towards higher-end segments of the industrial chain. Key upgrading projects such as those at Jilin Petrochemical Company and Guangxi Petrochemical Company, including the ethylene project, are progressing steadily, and the Blue Sea New Materials project has been launched. In 2024, China Petroleum processed 1.378 billion barrels of crude oil, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year; it produced 119,867,000 tons of refined oil products, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with gasoline production down 3.4%, jet fuel up 19.2%, and diesel down 6.8%; the ethylene output was 8,652,000 tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year; and the synthetic resin output was 13,293,000 tons, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. Sinopec: Revenue and net profit both declined, with fluctuations in the gross profit of refining and chemical products weighing on overall performance.In 2024, Sinopec achieved an operating income of 3.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%; the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 48.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. Affected by the volatile decline in international crude oil prices, the accelerated replacement of traditional energy by new energy in the domestic transportation industry, and the continuous release of new production capacity in the chemical market, gross profit margins have significantly narrowed. The weak demand and narrowed profit margins for some refining and chemical products have collectively impacted Sinopec's profitability.Despite the decline in revenue and profit, Sinopec maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with the total profit distribution ratio, including both dividends and repurchase amounts, reaching 75%. The company also established its first market value management system. The board of Sinopec proposed to distribute the final cash dividend of RMB 0.14 per share (tax included), and combined with the RMB 0.146 per share (tax included) distributed in the 2024 half-year period, the total cash dividend for 2024 would be RMB 0.286 per share (tax included). In the refining and chemical industry and new materials business, Sinopec's refining operations are guided by efficiency and aim to cope with market changes at low cost. In 2024, Sinopec processed a total of 252 million tons of crude oil throughout the year, producing 153 million tons of refined products, including a gasoline production increase of 2.6% year-on-year, a diesel production decrease of 10.3% year-on-year, and a coal oil production increase of 8.6% year-on-year. The total annual ethylene production was 13.467 million tons, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year; the synthetic resin production was 20.087 million tons, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. CNOOC: Cost Advantages Underpin High Profits Through Oil Price CyclesCNOOC maintained high profitability by focusing on quality improvement, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement, enabling it to navigate the oil price cycle. In 2024, CNOOC achieved operating revenue of 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to equity holders of 137.936 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. This marked the second-highest performance in the group's history, only surpassed by the 141.7 billion yuan net profit recorded in 2022.In order to share the development achievements with shareholders, the Board of Directors of CNOOC has proposed to distribute a final dividend of HK$0.66 per share (tax inclusive) for 2024. Together with the interim dividend of HK$0.74 per share (tax inclusive) already distributed, the total dividends for 2024, including the final and interim dividends, amount to HK$1.40 per share (tax inclusive). In terms of oil and gas production and sales, thanks to the contributions from oil and gas fields such as Bozhong 19-6 in China and the commissioning of overseas projects like Payara in Guyana, CNOOC achieved a net oil and gas production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Oil and gas sales volume reached 712 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 9.0% year-on-year, while oil and gas sales revenue amounted to 355.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The main cost per barrel of oil for the year was US$28.52 per barrel of oil equivalent, down approximately 1.1% year-on-year, further solidifying its competitive cost advantage. Industry Outlook: Growing Pains and Opportunities CoexistIn 2024, the international oil price center will shift downward (Brent crude oil average price at $79.9 per barrel), coupled with the acceleration of domestic new energy substitution, putting pressure on the refining and sales sectors. The sales volume of gasoline and diesel by PetroChina and Sinopec declined year-on-year, while CNOOC achieved a breakthrough by relying on its upstream advantages. In 2025, the strategic focus of the "Big Three" oil companies will diverge: PetroChina will strengthen the synergy between natural gas and new energy, Sinopec will accelerate the high-end transformation of its refining and chemical business, and CNOOC will focus on deep-sea exploration and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. In the future, cost control capabilities and industrial chain synergy efficiency will become the key for companies to navigate through the cycle.

Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics International oil prices surged sharply due to Trump's warnings of possible secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers, threats to bomb Iran, and impose tariffs.WTI crude oilFinally closed up 3.41% at $71.32 per barrel. Brent Crude OilClosed up 3.14% at $74.67 per barrel. Future Market ViewpointIn addition to Trump's threats against Iran and Russia that have made the market nervous, investors are also closely monitoring the economic impact of his impending announcement of reciprocal tariffs. The market is generally concerned that this move could undermine the economy and, in turn, affect oil demand, causing oil prices to continue to decline during the Asian session.The recent continuous strengthening of the monthly spread indicates that the series of sanctions imposed by Trump on multiple countries have heightened expectations of a tightening supply, which is the core driver of this round of oil price surge. Meanwhile, the gradual withdrawal of voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ and the implementation level of compensatory production cuts planned by some of its member countries also bring uncertainties to the supply side. Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs globally has created a series of uncertainties for the economy, increasing investors' concerns about weaker-than-expected demand. The factors affecting oil prices remain complex. The surge in oil prices on Monday refreshed the rebound high and began to challenge the strong resistance area, with funds increasing bets on geopolitical tensions. The development of the situation in the coming days will be crucial, determining the extent of the oil price surge. High volatility in oil prices will remain the norm, so it is important to manage risk and participate cautiously. II. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics◎Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs in the White House Rose Garden on April 2, with details potentially revealed on Wednesday morning Beijing time.U.S. officials stated that the plan would not include any exemption clauses (including those related to farmers) and would impose industry tariffs at another time.The U.S. automotive manufacturing industry is seeking to exclude certain car parts from tariffs.◎U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): U.S. crude oil production in January fell to the lowest level since February 2024.According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency: Iran summoned the Swiss ambassador representing U.S. interests.Issue a warning against Trump's threats.◎Federal Reserve - Williams:The current economy does not exhibit stagflation.① It relies on data to adjust policies, with high uncertainty, but long-term inflation expectations remain stable. ② Barksdale: A cut in interest rates requires confidence in the decline of inflation; it's not the right time to predict how many times there will be rate cuts this year. There are concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment.◎ It is reported that more ECB officials are prepared to accept a pause in interest rate cuts in April.◎The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in March, China's manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, increasing by 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, all rising for two consecutive months. Among them, the construction industry PMI has increased month-on-month for two consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024.China will take multiple measures to effectively reduce the burden on enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in collaboration with relevant departments, will issue the 2025 National Implementation Plan for Reducing Enterprise Burden. The State Administration for Market Regulation will carry out regular special actions to address arbitrary charges on enterprises and expedite the introduction of the "Measures for Handling Illegal and Non-compliant Enterprise Fee Collection Practices." The Ministry of Finance will ensure that the benefits of fee reduction and burden alleviation policies are solidly delivered to business entities.The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it will promote state-owned enterprises to intensify their efforts in expanding into industries such as new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, while encouraging accelerated development of sectors like biopharmaceuticals through mergers and reorganizations. It also emphasized the need to strategically plan and cultivate future industries in a phased manner, expedite the nurturing of the first batch of pioneering enterprises, and leverage major projects like manned spaceflight and deep-sea and deep-earth exploration to strive for a competitive edge in future development. III. Early Morning Dynamics in the Plastic MarketInternational oil prices rose by 3%, while overnight domestic plastic futures main contract showed a fluctuating upward trend.The plastic 2505 contract was reported at 7,687 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day.The PP2505 contract is quoted at 7,344 yuan per ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day.The PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5094 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day. Four: Today's Market ForecastPE：In terms of costs, there is room for crude oil prices to fall, and cost support has weakened. In terms of supply, some companies have maintenance plans, which have alleviated supply pressures. In terms of demand, although it is currently the traditional peak season for PE downstream, feedback from downstream products indicates that overall demand has fallen short of expectations, with limited follow-up terminal orders. Overall, although supply pressures have eased somewhat, demand improvement is limited, market participants' sentiment has not shown significant improvement, and there is a lack of positive factors in the market. Therefore, it is expected that polyethylene prices will remain weak today.PP：The sluggish global economy has impacted the export strength of domestic products, and additional tariffs imposed by overseas markets have constrained downstream product export orders, leading to a low short-term market demand valuation. However, the cost support for PDH production remains, keeping market prices locked at lower levels. Intensive PP plant maintenance has eased supply and demand pressures. The market is currently caught in a struggle between supply-demand dynamics and cost factors. In the short term, the polypropylene market is expected to test transaction levels around 7280-7430 yuan/ton. Key areas to watch include the impact of tariff adjustments on downstream product exports, as well as changes in industry chain inventory and demand.PVC：The supply and demand fundamentals of PVC remain weak. On the supply side, minor maintenance of equipment has led to a slight reduction in production, while demand orders are underperforming, with weak performance in procurement and raw material demand. Export deliveries remain high, effectively reducing domestic inventory. Costs remain firm in the short term, supporting the bottom price. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak range-bound fluctuation in the near term, with the spot price of calcium carbide-based PVC in East China expected to be in the range of 4800-5000 yuan/ton.

Introduction: U.S. President Trump is expected to announce "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2. Industry analysts have summarized three main scenarios and their corresponding market impacts. First, if only reciprocal tariffs are announced, the market reaction may be relatively limited. Second, if reciprocal tariffs are combined with a value-added tax (VAT), the U.S. dollar index could immediately rise by 50–100 basis points, and global stock markets may also decline. Third, if industry-specific tariffs are added on top of reciprocal tariffs and VAT, the market reaction could be even more severe. How will the domestic chemical market respond in such a scenario?Overseas Macro: Global Attention on April 2nd U.S. "Reciprocal Tariffs"Since taking office, the actual tariff policies implemented by Trump: The Trump administration has imposed an additional 20% tariff on China, a uniform 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, and additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada. On March 26, Trump also signed a proclamation announcing a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts.Trump is expected to announce "Reciprocal Tariffs" on April 2. Industry analysis suggests three key aspects to watch regarding the reciprocal tariffs: the scope of targeted countries, the tariff rates, and whether there are any exemptions. Trump's reciprocal tariffs primarily target economies that impose high tariffs on the U.S. and account for a significant share of trade. These may include Ireland, Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries and regions.The 20 countries and regions with the highest trade volume with the United States.Data source: publicly available informationThe industry has summarized three main scenarios and their corresponding market impacts: The first scenario is the announcement of reciprocal tariffs only, which would lead to a relatively limited market reaction; the second scenario is reciprocal tariffs plus Value-Added Tax (VAT), under which the US Dollar Index might immediately rise by 50 to 100 basis points and the global stock market might also fall; the third scenario includes sector-specific tariffs in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, and the market reaction in this scenario might be even more intense.Under the shadow of Trump's tariff policies, international trade is moving further down the path of deglobalization. Countries around the world may introduce more protectionist measures, hindering multilateral trade cooperation and further exacerbating global economic uncertainty.This week, the bulk commodity market experienced frequent fluctuations.From Monday to Thursday, the OPEC+ compensation production cut plan was announced, coupled with increased U.S. sanctions on Iran, leading to expectations of tight supply and strong support for oil prices. International crude oil prices rose consecutively, approaching the $70 mark. However, on Friday, concerns that Trump's tariff policies could disrupt supply chains and exacerbate global economic uncertainty caused international crude oil prices to retreat again.The new round of U.S. tariff policies has heightened market concerns over global trade friction, leading to a significant surge in gold prices this week. As of the close on March 28, spot gold rose by 0.94% to $3,084.33 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.88% to $3,118 per ounce, both hitting record highs.Chemical bulk: Spot market continues weak trend this week, futures only hold for two daysAccording to data monitoring by Jinlianchuang, in the domestic chemical spot market, from last week to this week, the overall market showed little change, continuing the weak trend observed since March.Data source: JLCFrom the perspective of the domestic chemical futures market, the chemical market closed this week with gains mainly on Monday (March 24) and Thursday (March 27). However, this upward trend only held for two days, as the market shifted back to a decline-dominated performance by Friday (March 28).Data Source: Jin Lian Chuan (Gold Union Creation)As shown in the above figure, according to the monitoring of the chemical industry index by Jinlianchuang, as of March 28, the chemical market and international crude oil trends have diverged significantly this week. International crude oil continued to strengthen above 69 but closed lower on March 28, although it did not break below 69. During the same period, the chemical industry index has been fluctuating downward around the 5200 mark and has now refreshed the new low since 2025.The market has certain expectations regarding the direction and magnitude of tariffs, and the short-term impact on the chemical market is relatively limited.Industry analysis suggests that the U.S. is likely to continue imposing tariffs on China, but the extent of the increase will likely not exceed expectations, with the primary aim being to exert pressure. Trump's core objective is to drive the reshoring of manufacturing. Currently, the actual implementation of tariff policies remains limited, and it is expected that the current tariff policies will remain highly uncertain, requiring ongoing monitoring of subsequent developments and reactions from all parties.In the face of this situation, export-oriented enterprises need to promptly adjust their production and strategies to mitigate risks. In the short term, the market has certain expectations regarding the direction and extent of tariffs, which limits the impact on chemical product prices; however, over the long term, this could lead to a decline in demand for chemical products exported to Europe and America. Enterprises will need to consider transformation or seek new sources of revenue.

On March 31, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun presided over the regular press conference.A foreign media reporter asked that US President Donald Trump said that the United States might impose a "secondary tariff" on buyers of Russian oil, with China being its main buyer. What is your comment on this?Guo Jia Kun stated that China's position on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis is consistent and clear; we have always believed that dialogue and negotiation are the only feasible way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Sino-Russian cooperation is neither aimed at a third party nor influenced by factors related to a third party.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be confusing, with reports of Ukraine continuing to attack Russia. Trump also threatened today to impose a 25% secondary tariff on Russian oil. Brent crude oil's intraday gains have expanded to 1.00%, currently priced at $73.08 per barrel.So how will the polyolefin market perform this week?Polyolefins remained generally range-bound, with weak support from the cost side. On the supply side, new capacity is still being released recently, while demand lacks significant highlights. Overall, with the support of maintenance and losses, the market continues to trend weakly. For PP, China's polypropylene commercial inventory decreased by 7.81% week-on-week last week, with total producer inventories down 8.42% week-on-week. Trader inventories fell by 7.31% week-on-week, while port warehouse inventories dropped by 2.92% week-on-week. By product category, homopolymer inventory decreased by 2.59% week-on-week, and fiber-grade inventory declined by 16.04% week-on-week.On the supply side, the No. 1 ethylene plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical with a capacity of 70,000 tons/year and the PP unit of Hainan Ethylene with a capacity of 300,000 tons/year have started operation. The No. 5 line (300,000 tons/year) PP unit of Yulong Petrochemical is under maintenance shutdown. The PP unit of Beihai Refining and Chemical (200,000 tons/year) is also under maintenance shutdown. The daily production proportion of draw has decreased by 2.74% to 25.28%. The three-line 500,000-ton/year facility of Inner Mongolia Baofeng plans to start production, but future maintenance periods for these facilities will partly offset the supply pressure brought by new facilities coming online.On the demand side, the raw material inventory days for large enterprises in the plastic weaving sample increased by 2.08% compared to last week; the raw material inventory days for BOPP sample enterprises rose by 0.20%. The raw material inventory days for modified PP increased by 2.16% compared to last week. Downstream procurement remains primarily rigid, with demand follow-up falling short of expectations, leading to slower inventory digestion. Due to global economic weakness and the impact of overseas tariffs on some downstream export orders, coupled with the dual pressure of shrinking domestic and international orders, downstream willingness to replenish raw material inventories remains low.On the PE front, supply-side, the maintenance of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 was completed and restarted, while new maintenance began at Lanzhou Petrochemical's old full-density unit and Wanhua Chemical's LDPE unit. The capacity utilization rate for polyethylene dropped from 82.38% to 82.20%, a decrease of 0.18% month-on-month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate in the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) industry this week was 87.27%, down 2.28% month-on-month. Downstream factories are experiencing peak seasonal demand for ground applications, and operating rates are expected to maintain an upward trend. However, new orders are limited, leading to only a slight increase in operating rates, and sustained restocking efforts remain weak.Strategy: Short-term supply maintenance is frequent, and demand has shown some improvement. Entering the peak season, demand recovery remains slow. Approaching the end of the month, upstream petrochemical companies are actively destocking, while intermediate traders purchase goods to fulfill their plans, shifting inventory to the middle of the supply chain. Focus on the commissioning of new production capacities on the supply side and the recovery of demand. In the short term, the strategy for polyolefins remains short positioning.

On March 30, NBC News reported that Russian President Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Zelensky's leadership, which made Trump feel "very angry" and "frustrated," saying that these remarks "missed the point."AFP reported that on Friday, Putin called on Ukraine to establish a transitional government, which could effectively remove Zelenskyy.In a phone call with reporters, Trump expressed that he was "very angry, very upset" when Putin started questioning Zelensky's credibility and discussing new leadership in Ukraine.On Sunday, Trump told NBC News: "If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it's Russia's fault—maybe not, but if I think it's Russia's fault—I will impose secondary tariffs on all oil exported from Russia."Trump said, "That means if you buy oil from Russia, you can't do business in the United States. All oil will be subject to a 25% tariff, and all oil will be subject to a 25 to 50 percentage point tariff."Trump stated: "The United States will impose a 25% tariff on oil and other products, which is a secondary tariff." He noted that if no ceasefire agreement is reached, the tariffs on Russia would be implemented within a month. Trump said that Putin knows he is angry. However, Trump added that his relationship with Putin is very good, "and if he does the right thing, the anger will quickly dissipate."Trump stated that the two plan to speak again this week.

One, Overnight Crude Oil Market DynamicsMarket concerns about the US increasing tariffs and escalating trade risks may lead to a global economic recession, causing international oil prices to drop. NYMEXCrude oil futuresMay contract fell by $0.56 to $69.36 per barrel, down 0.80% month-on-month; ICE Brent crude futures May contract fell by $0.40 to $73.63 per barrel, down 0.54% month-on-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 dropped by 1.7 to 541.7 yuan per barrel, and fell by 3.7 to 538 yuan per barrel during the night session.Market outlookAlthough oil prices have achieved a three-week上涨 should be replaced with "consecutive weekly gains", the pace of increase in crude prices slowed down noticeably on Thursday, and the decline in prices on Friday further suggests that the recent rebound in oil may be coming to an end. The impact of sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions has dominated oil price fluctuations over the past three weeks, causing fairly noticeable disruptions to supply.As April approaches, OPEC+ will gradually begin to implement its exit from the production cut plan, and discussions surrounding the tariffs from the Trump administration in the United States will return to the market. President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the coming days.The decline in oil prices during Friday's night session erased most of the weekly gains, pushing oil prices into a correction phase. However, regional disparities in strength are expected to persist, so it's important to hedge risks and manage the pace carefully. II. Macroeconomic Market DynamicsThe final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the U.S. was 57, lower than the preliminary reading of 57.9, marking the lowest level in over two years. The final one-year inflation expectation was 5%, compared to the preliminary reading of 4.9%; the final five-year inflation expectation was 4.1%, the highest since February 1993, up from the preliminary reading of 3.9%. ◎The Eurozone's industrial sentiment index was -10.6 in March, expected -10.5, previous -11; economic sentiment index 95.2, expected 97, previous 96.3; service sector sentiment index 2.4, expected 6.7, previous 5.1.◎The UK's final GDP growth for Q4 2024 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, compared to the expected and preliminary growth of 1.4%. Seasonally adjusted retail sales in February rose by 1% month-on-month, against an expected decline of 0.4%.◎Canada's January GDP increased by 2.2% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.1% and a previous 2.2%; it rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to an expected 0.3% and a previous 0.2%.French CPI preliminary value for March rose 0.8% year-over-year, with expectations of a 0.9% increase and a final reading of 0.8% in February; the monthly rise was 0.2%, below expectations of a 0.3% increase, following a flat reading in February. Three. Early Market Dynamics of the Plastics MarketThe international oil prices fell, and the domestic plastic futures主力contract showed a震荡downward trend overnight:The plastic 2505 contract reported 7,674 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous trading day.The PP2505 contract is quoted at 7,322 yuan per ton, down 0.39% from the previous trading day.The PVC2505 contract was quoted at 5063 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous trading day. Four, Today's Market ForecastPE：In terms of supply, it is expected that the supply of goods in the market will be relatively abundant in April. The projects in Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Wanhua Chemical, and Shandong Yulong, which have been put into production earlier, may gradually increase their load and release more output. Additionally, as demand in downstream industries further warms up in April, the production enthusiasm of PE (polyethylene) plants is likely to increase, and previously shut-down facilities are expected to restart. On the demand side, the northern region is entering the peak season for agricultural films, with agricultural film companies maintaining high operational rates. Large manufacturers are running at full capacity, and some factories are stocking up in advance, which provides strong support for PE demand. Furthermore, with the continuous development of the e-commerce industry, the demand for PE in the express packaging sector remains relatively stable. However, the recovery speed of orders in the packaging industry in the southern region is relatively slow, which may have some impact on the overall demand growth. Overall, it is expected that the polyethylene market may show a trend of fluctuating upward in April.PP：In terms of supply, it is expected that the on-site supply in April will show a decreasing trend due to the maintenance of multiple PP facilities, such as the Jinan Refinery and Sinopec Tianjin. However, the commissioning of new facilities and changes in operating rates of existing facilities may also impact the actual supply situation. In terms of demand, PP demand is expected to increase in April, as the arrival of spring brings more agricultural and construction projects, leading to a rise in demand for products such as fertilizer bags, cement bags, and pipes and fittings. Additionally, with the support of national policies, consumption of PP in the automotive and home appliance sectors is likely to show a favorable growth trend. However, the additional tariffs imposed overseas on downstream products still pose a negative impact on exports, which may hinder the growth of demand to some extent. Overall, it is anticipated that the polypropylene market may present a trend of fluctuating upward in April.PVC：In March, the futures and spot markets returned to the lower range for consolidation and struggle, with limited variables provided by supply and demand factors. On the international front, crude oil prices continued to rise as market traders weighed potential supply tightness and the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the global economy. After the U.S. issued tariff threats against buyers of Venezuelan oil, concerns about global supply tightness emerged. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market is expected to maintain a narrow adjustment trend in the absence of clear influencing factors, but extended high-level consolidation is likely to create downward pressure.

It is reported that Saudi Aramco plans to invest in two under-construction refinery projects in India to expand its crude oil export channels.The two proposed investment projects are located in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, respectively, and are led by Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Indian Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.According to reports, Saudi Aramco hopes to supply crude oil at three times the scale of its stake in the project, but India hopes to maintain flexibility in crude oil procurement. According to sources, oil giant Saudi Aramco is planning to invest in two under-construction refinery projects in India, hoping to establish a stable crude oil export channel in this rapidly growing emerging market.As one of the world's major oil-consuming and importing countries, India is striving to establish itself as a global refining hub. In the context of Western countries transitioning to clean energy and continuously reducing refining capacity, India hopes to enhance its position in the global energy industry chain.At the same time, as Indian refineries upgrade and diversify their crude oil sources, they are turning to more price-advantageous oil-supplying countries, including Russia, resulting in a decrease in Saudi Arabia's share of crude oil imports in India.According to reports, Saudi Aramco is in discussions with two Indian state-owned enterprises—Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)—regarding two planned refinery projects, with the former located in southern Andhra Pradesh and the latter situated in western Gujarat.Among them, ONGC's project is still in the early planning stage, while BPCL's related projects have already initiated preliminary work, including land acquisition in Andhra Pradesh, with plans to build a petrochemical refining complex with an annual output of no less than 9 million tons.According to BPCL's introduction, the petrochemical portion of the project will account for 35%, with an estimated total investment of 900 billion to 950 billion rupees (approximately 10.5 billion to 11.1 billion US dollars).Although Saudi Aramco intends to invest, two people familiar with the project said that these projects will continue to advance regardless of their participation. One person stated, "Whether to accept Saudi Aramco's investment depends on the specific proposal they put forward."Informed sources reveal that Saudi Aramco hopes to supply crude oil at three times the scale of its share in the project and to decide on its own whether the produced portion will be sold in India or exported.A refinery person stated, "We hope to maintain flexibility in crude oil procurement. If they only hold 30% of the shares but demand crude oil equivalent to 90% of the refinery's production capacity, this is unacceptable to us."The investment scale of the project and details such as refinery configuration have not yet been disclosed.A knowledgeable source said that Indian Prime Minister Modi plans to visit Saudi Arabia in the second quarter of this year, and the two countries are seeking to reach relevant agreements before then. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs did not respond to this.Saudi Aramco has been seeking opportunities to expand its market share in India's refining sector.In 2018, Saudi Aramco collaborated with a consortium of several Indian state-owned companies, including Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and BPCL, to build a refining and petrochemical complex (RRPCL) in Maharashtra, India, with an expected processing capacity of up to 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. In 2019, Saudi Aramco signed a non-binding agreement with Reliance Industries Limited to acquire a 20% stake in its oil and gas chemical business.Due to land acquisition issues, the progress of the RRPCL project has been slow; and the equity cooperation with Reliance has also been ultimately put on hold due to differences in valuation between the two parties.

Overnight Crude Oil Market DynamicsThe United States has extended sanctions on certain oil-producing countries, raising market concerns over potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude Oil FuturesThe May contract rose by $0.27 to $69.92 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.39%; ICE Brent crude futures for May rose by $0.24 to $74.03 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.33%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 increased by 4.0 to 543.4 yuan per barrel, and fell by 0.4 to 543 yuan per barrel during the night session.Outlook on the market outlookOil prices fell first and then rose on Thursday, closing with a long lower shadow. After continuous rebounds, the pace of increase slowed down. During the Asian session, oil prices started to fall back from their highs. In the rebound over the previous three weeks, Brent crude had accumulated an increase of about $6, while SC crude oil rebounded by 46 yuan. Sanctions and geopolitical disturbances have been fairly priced in. Just as oil prices were about to adjust, news during the night session revealed that multiple European countries came out to accuse Russia, stating they would not lift sanctions against Russia. The EU chose to support Ukraine more vigorously in an attempt to pressure the US and Russia to gain the initiative on the Russia-Ukraine issue. Russian President Putin said that Russia is ready to cooperate with Europe to resolve the Ukraine issue, but they are attempting to lead Russia by the nose. Meanwhile, Trump’s goal is very clear: to quickly achieve a ceasefire, as the US is unwilling to continue funding Ukraine. Previously, Medvedev’s views on social media were more direct: “The phone call between President Putin and President Trump proved a well-known idea — there are only Russia and the US in the restaurant. The menu includes: appetizers — Brussels sprouts, British fish and chips, and Paris rooster. The main course is Kiev cutlets. Enjoy your meal!” Obviously, Europe does not want to be the dish on the table, but also wants to pull up a chair and sit down. The game of interests among all parties has once again drawn market attention, which allowed oil prices to rebound and recover from the adjustment, shaking off the intraday losses. Geopolitical factors continue to affect oil price fluctuations. From the recent mutual accusations between Russia and Ukraine on non-compliance with the ceasefire on energy facilities, it can be seen that the process of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will still be very tortuous. All parties, based on their own interests, will continue to play the game, which will also continuously disturb oil prices in terms of geopolitics. Overall, these geopolitical disturbances are still relatively controllable, so market participants are very cautious about the geopolitical premium.As oil prices gradually approach the resistance zone, the momentum has shifted from a previous strong rally to a high-level tug-of-war phase. Capital is weighing the combined impacts of sanctions, geopolitical factors, and U.S. tariffs. Based on current performance, if there is no significant escalation of geopolitical tensions, it will be difficult for oil prices to continue to surge. It is necessary to remain vigilant about changes in market sentiment and expectations, as oil prices will continue to experience high volatility, and attention should be paid to rhythm management. II. Macro Market DynamicsThe number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 1,000 to 224,000 last week, compared to an expected 225,000. The number of continued claims for the previous week dropped by 25,000 to 1.856 million, below the expected 1.888 million, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains in good condition. ◎The Central Bank of Mexico announced a 50-basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 9.0%, in line with expectations.The Brazilian Central Bank stated in its quarterly "Monetary Policy Report" that the Brazilian economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025, which is a downward revision from the 2.1% growth forecast in the previous December's quarterly report. The report also indicated that by the first three quarters of 2025, Brazil’s annual cumulative inflation rate is anticipated to be within the range of 5.5% to 5.6%, dropping to around 5.1% by the end of the year. However, this figure is still higher than the upper limit of the inflation tolerance range set by the country’s estimates.The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to February, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year. The profits of industrial enterprises have improved, with the manufacturing sector showing significant profit growth, increasing by 4.8% year-on-year from January to February. Plastic market morning session dynamics.Oil prices fell initially but then rose, closing with a long lower shadow; the domestic plastic futures main contract showed an upward trend in overnight trading:The plastic 2505 contract is quoted at 7,713 yuan per ton, up 0.14% from the previous trading day.The PP2505 contract is quoted at 7,351 yuan per ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day.The PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5132 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the previous trading day. Four, today's market predictionPE：On the supply side, next week, PE facilities at Wanhua Chemical and Yanshan Petrochemical are scheduled to restart, while PE facilities at Zhong'an United and Shanghai Petrochemical are planned for short-term maintenance. It is expected that the maintenance losses will decrease somewhat, and supply in the mainland will remain ample, while port arrivals continue to be low. On the demand side, it is anticipated that the overall operating rate of downstream industries for PE will continue to rise slightly next week, with demand following suit modestly. There will be sporadic replenishments of stretch film and food and daily chemical packaging bags, and orders for film production are relatively decent during the peak season, but agricultural film companies are cautious and mainly purchase raw materials on a per-order basis. Considering the combined effects, it is expected that the polypropylene market may consolidate within a range.PP：On the supply side, a small number of PP plants are scheduled for maintenance next week, while some previously shut down PP plants are planning to restart. The resumption of production capacity may exceed the newly added maintenance capacity, and the utilization rate of PP plant capacity is expected to increase slightly, with little overall change in supply. On the demand side, terminal demand is expected to continue to be released slowly next week, mainly driven by rigid demand purchases. Affected by the weak global economy and overseas tariffs, some downstream export orders have been reduced. Squeezed by the reduction in both domestic and foreign orders, the willingness of downstream raw material procurement and restocking is low. However, due to the upcoming Qingming holiday next week, there may be expectations for downstream stockpiling. Under the comprehensive influence, it is expected that the polypropylene market may rise with fluctuations.PVC：On Thursday, the overall cultural goods index continued to rise, and the commodity trends also showed divergence. By the midday close, the main domestic futures contracts were mixed. In the PVC sector, no significant price variables were observed. Regarding supply maintenance, although a few companies are undergoing maintenance, the resulting loss in volume is insufficient to impact price changes. With caustic soda profits remaining favorable, chlor-alkali companies continue to maintain high operational loads. The boost in demand on prices is also limited. However, as April approaches, futures are gradually entering the process of position shifting and month switching. Internationally, crude oil prices have climbed due to inventory data showing a decline in U.S. crude and fuel stocks last week. Additionally, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan crude has heightened market concerns about tightening global supply. Overall, the PVC spot market is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term.

Over the past five years, New Mexico has quietly become a major energy hub in the United States,依托其东南部二叠纪盆地的油气储备。Due to its oil and gas reserves in the Permian Basin in the southeastern part of the state. （注：最后一部分“依托其东南部二叠纪盆地的油气储备”在直译时出现了结构不完整的问题，正确的表达应为"Thanks to its oil and gas reserves in the Permian Basin in the southeastern part of the state." 这里进行了适当的调整以保证句子的通顺和逻辑的连贯性。） 正确翻译应为：Over the past five years, New Mexico has quietly become a major energy hub in the United States, thanks to its oil and gas reserves in the Permian Basin in the southeastern part of the state.2024年New Mexico'sCrude oil production reachesArrived at2.11 million barrels/Sun, relativelyIn 2019 (900,000 barrels)/DaygrowthLe了It seems like you provided only one Chinese character "了" which is often used as a particle in Chinese grammar. In this case, I have translated it directly to "Le" as it's sometimes transliterated in Pinyin. However, without a full sentence or context, its meaning and usage might vary.134%, ranking it as the second largest oil-producing state in the U.S.(The first place is undoubtedly Texas.)Among them,The most important oil and gas resources in the United States- Permian Basin (extending from Texas, the state with the highest oil production, to New Mexico, the state with the second highest production) -contributed to85% of the outputThe exploration activities vigorously carried out in Eddy County and Lea County in southeastern New Mexico further contributed to the increase in oil production.——Edwards County and Lea County are separated by1.7 million barrels per dayThe output yieldAccounting for the total output of the basin29%。This growth trend contrasts sharply with that of states like North Dakota, Oklahoma, and California, where production has stagnated or declined.Since 2019, the overall oil production in the United States has continued to rise, making it the largest oil producer in the world. After the energy crisis triggered by the pandemic in 2020, production reached a new peak in August 2023 and continued to grow until December 2024 (latest data).The entire Permian Basin's production continued to grow in 2024, exceeding 6 million barrels per day.The image aboveIndustry participants point out that the region has more drilling sites and multi-layered oil-bearing formations compared to other basins, allowing for the simultaneous development of multiple reservoirs. Additionally, its advantages include a favorable regulatory environment, proximity to the Gulf of Mexico refining industrial area, and a convenient pipeline transportation network.Figure: The share of completed wells in New Mexico continues to rise.(The figure below)The Permian Basin consists of three sub-basins: the Midland Basin, the Delaware Basin, and the Central Basin Platform. High-yield wells are typically located in the former two.The region began to be mined in the 1920s, but after 2010, the 'shale revolution' driven by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology led to a surge in production.The Midland Basin has shallower drilling depths and is farther from areas with hazardous hydrogen sulfide gas accumulations, and it also has more developed infrastructure. Therefore, it dominated in the early stages of shale development, helping Texas become the top producer in the United States.The oil production in Texas has increased fromFrom 5.1 million barrels per day in 2019 to 5.7 million barrels per day in 2024.Compared toNew MexicoThe increase in its production was even more significant.——FromThe number of barrels per day jumped from 900,000 to 2 million. The proportion of completions in New Mexico increased from 20% in 2019 to 28% in 2023.Making that yearIt has become a record-breaking year for the number of completions in the Permian Basin.In addition, industry efficiency has also significantly improved.Between 2010 and 2023, labor productivity in the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 174%, far exceeding the 18% growth rate of the non-agricultural sector. Drilling cycles have shortened by 33%. Despite a 25% reduction in fracturing crews, the number of well completions has continued to rise.MainlyThanks to technological advancementsHowever, corporate integration has also improved efficiency, as large companies shorten completion times by leveraging stable teams and prioritizing the development of high-quality land.Oil and gas revenues have enriched the state government's coffers.2024In the year, the oil and gas industry directly contributed to the state of New Mexico.15% of GDP, createdLe了It seems like there might be a typo or missing part in your input since "了" by itself doesn't form a complete sentence or phrase in Chinese. However, "了" translates to "le" in English, often used as an aspect marker in Chinese grammar.92,500 job positions (accounting for 8.5% of the total workforce)；2024年TheOil and gas tax revenue reaches11.3 billion US dollars, of which 1.05 billion is invested in an education fund to support free preschool education and university programs.This makes the undergraduate education costs in New Mexico the third lowest in the USA.It costs $34,945, and graduates recoup their educational investment within an average of two years, with a return rate of 151%.New Mexico passed​"Resource Development""Fiscal Revenue Increase - Livelihood Investment"​The closed-loop model has achieved coordinated development between energy economics and social welfare. Relying on technological dividends and policy innovation, it provides a reference paradigm for the transformation of resource-based regions. In the future, it is necessary to balance environmental protection pressure and industrial sustainability to consolidate the United States' leadership in energy. Author: Gao Xing,NEx塑料世界Senior Market Analyst

I. Overnight Futures Market DynamicsAlthough Trump's secondary tariffs on Venezuela boosted oil prices, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and on energy facilities limited the涨幅 of oil prices. （注：原文中的“涨幅”在英文中没有直接对应的词语放在句尾，因此在翻译时进行了适当的调整以保持句子通顺。正确的翻译应为：“Although Trump's secondary tariffs on Venezuela boosted oil prices, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and on energy facilities limited the rise in oil prices.”）WTI Crude OilFinally closed up 0.05% at $69.14 per barrel.Brent crude oilIncreased by 0.15%, reported at $73.12 per barrel. II. Macroeconomic Market DynamicsTrump is reportedly planning a two-step tariff plan.U.S. President Trump is considering a two-step strategy for his new tariff system, which involves imposing emergency tariffs using rarely utilized powers before completing investigations into trade partners. Sources familiar with the discussions say that the proposals being discussed by government officials aim to establish a more solid legal framework for reciprocal tariffs while allowing Trump to raise funds for his planned tax cuts. Among the proposals that Trump's team has been discussing is a plan to initiate a so-called "Section 301" investigation against trade partners while using the rarely invoked emergency powers to immediately impose tariffs during the transition period.Trump: Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime ceasefire.Former President Trump stated that significant progress has been made on the Ukraine issue as of March 25, local time. He mentioned that the United States is engaged in in-depth discussions with both Russia and Ukraine, and the progress is smooth. Trump indicated that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime ceasefire, with other countries involved in monitoring the ceasefire process. He also stated that he would consider Russia's request for sanctions relief.◎Recently, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research on relevant platform enterprises to promote the healthy development of the platform economy and market regulation. He emphasized the need to accelerate the improvement of relevant laws and regulations regarding platform rules, algorithms, fees, and live e-commerce, resolutely address issues such as low-quality and low-price "involution" competition, and severely crack down on behaviors such as counterfeiting, false advertising, fictitious discounts, false comparisons, and traffic speculation.The National Health Commission is carrying out a research initiative for high-quality population development by 2025, focusing primarily on: promoting high-quality population development, improving the fertility support policy system, and creating a friendly social environment for childbirth.errorThe UK and India are considering lowering taxes on American goods before April 2nd to avoid being hit by U.S. tariffs. India plans to reduce tariffs on $23 billion worth of U.S. goods and eliminate the controversial 6% digital tax. The UK is contemplating adjustments to its digital services tax imposed on American tech companies.In March, the Consumer Confidence Index of the American Chamber of Commerce for World Large Enterprises recorded 92.9, the lowest since January 2021, with an expected value of 94 and a previous value of 98.3. The expected index plummeted to 65.2, hitting a twelve-year low.The US FHFA house price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in January, the smallest increase since June 2024, with expectations of a 0.3% rise and a previous value revised from a 0.4% increase to a 0.5% increase.◎The SP/CS 20-City Composite unadjusted house price index for the US in January rose 4.7% year over year, in line with expectations of a 4.7% increase, compared to 4.48% in the previous month.U.S. February new home sales totaled 676,000 units annually, expecting 679,000 units, with the previous figure revised from 657,000 to 664,000 units.◎The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for March in the US was -4, with expectations at 1 and a previous value of 6.The UK's CBI retail sales balance for March is -41, the lowest since July of last year, with an expectation of -24 and a previous value of -23. 3. Plastic Market Morning UpdateOil prices closed slightly higher overnight, marking six consecutive gains, while domestic plastic futures contracts traded narrowly in the night session.Plastic 2505 contract reported at 7,713 yuan per ton, up 0.01% from the previous trading day.PP2505 contract reported at 7327 yuan per ton, up 0.01% from the previous trading day.PVC2505 contract was reported at 5,130 yuan per ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.The 2025 contract for styrene was reported at 7,725 yuan per ton, down 1.38% from the previous trading day. IV. Future ForecastPP：Although OPEC+ will gradually increase production slightly starting in April, some oil-producing countries have indicated that compensatory production cuts will still be implemented. Coupled with the ongoing instability in geopolitical situations, international oil prices may trend upward. On the supply side, there are more planned maintenance shutdowns for PP facilities, and there are currently no announcements regarding new production starts, which is expected to lead to a decrease in available supply. On the demand side, the increase in downstream operating rates and the consumption of inventory for raw material PP may drive a slight rise in demand, providing some support for the PP market. However, the adverse effects of additional tariffs imposed overseas may offset some of this growth. Overall, it is expected that the polypropylene market may undergo upward consolidation in the short term.PE：On the supply side, it is expected that the material supply will remain stable with a growing trend. The number of PE facilities currently planning maintenance is relatively low, coupled with ample physical goods in the market. Although some facilities are undergoing product conversion, there is no significant overall change. On the demand side, it is expected that downstream operating levels will continue to improve. There is room for demand release in sectors such as agricultural films, packaging, and construction. However, factors such as additional tariffs imposed by overseas markets may limit the growth rate to some extent. Overall, in the short term, it is anticipated that the polyethylene market will likely range-bound.PVC：Spot market quotations from merchants in various regions have seen minor declines in some areas and minor increases in others, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation. However, most actual transactions allow for negotiation. After the futures prices increased, the basis报价 offers did not have a price advantage, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and traders was not high, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. The spot market remains weak, with downstream buyers still preferring to replenish their stock through low-priced price fixing after the futures prices decline, showing poor response when prices rise. Currently, the supply and demand situation does not provide sufficient direction for prices, and there is no clear long-term guidance from domestic economic policies or news. Although both the futures and spot markets saw a significant increase yesterday, today's sustained momentum appears somewhat insufficient. In the short term, continue to observe the stability of PVC spot market prices.

Trump's "tariff blitz" is coming.On the 24th, local time, the White House announced that U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "tariff sanctions" on countries importing Venezuelan oil. Starting April 2nd, the U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from any country that directly or indirectly imports Venezuelan oil.Affected by this, international oil prices soared, with the Monday close of the US WTI May crude oil futures up 1.21%, reaching as high as $69.33 per barrel for the day, the highest since March 4; the Brent May crude oil futures closed up 1.16%, at $73.0Additionally, Trump stated that he would announce additional tariffs on cars, wood products, and semiconductors in the coming days, indicating his plan to impose more comprehensive tariffs on top of the "reciprocal tariffs" already planned. However, analysts believe whether these tariffs will ultimately be implemented and how they will be implemented remains uncertain.Trump signed it.On March 25th, according to the CCTV News client, on the 24th local time, the White House stated that US President Trump signed an executive order imposing "tariff sanctions" on countries that import Venezuelan oil. The statement said that starting April 2nd, the United States may impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from any country that directly or indirectly imports Venezuelan oil.This command authorizes the U.S. Secretary of State to decide, whether on or after April 2nd, to impose a 25% tariff on any country's goods directly or indirectly importing Venezuelan oil. Once the Secretary decides to impose a 25% tariff on a specific country, the tariff shalTrump announced on 24 days prior to the tweet that the United States would impose secondary tariffs on Venezuela due to multiple reasons.Trump added that any country purchasing oil or natural gas from Venezuela would be forced to pay a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States.Trump said that the relevant tariffs would take effect on April 2. When asked by the media if the 25% tariff is "an additional tax on top of the existing tariffs," Trump answered, "Yes."After Trump's post, international oil prices surged. Specifically, the U.S. WTI May crude oil futures closed up 1.21%, at $69.11 per barrel, with an intraday high of $69.33, the highest level since March 4; the Brent May crude oil futures closed up 1.16%, at $73.00 per barrel.U.S. media analysis indicates that Trump's so-called "secondary tariffs" are similar to "secondary sanctions." Secondary sanctions target the governments, entities, or individuals of third countries, threatening to cut their economic ties with the United States, thereby forcing them to comply with U.S. sanctions and achieving the goal of isolating the sanctioned country.It should be noted that the United States is also one of the destinations for Venezuelan energy and may continue to import for some time. According to market research firm Kpler, Venezuela's crude oil exports in 2024 are expected to be around 660,000 barrels per day, with the United States importing approximately 233,000 barrels per day.Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza stated on the 24th that the US measure to impose a 25% tariff on nations purchasing oil and natural gas from Venezuela is "illegal" and "arbitrary."On March 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Venezuela issued a statement firmly opposing the U.S. government's imposition of a 25% secondary tariff on countries trading oil and natural gas with Venezuela.The announcement states that US President Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs constitutes a new act of aggression, openly violating the rules of international trade such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization. Venezuela will take all appropriate actions in international organizations to defend its rights and condemn this new violation of the world economic order.Additional tariffsOn the 24th local time, US President Trump said that he would announce additional tariffs on cars, wood, and chips in the coming days.Trump also stated that as the effective date of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 approaches, he may offer tariff exemptions to many countries, but they need to achieve "reciprocity." Trump mentioned that the European Union has agreed to lower auto tariffs to 2.5%, the same level as the United States. Additionally, Trump further clarified that not all tariffs will take effect on April 2.This indicates that Trump plans to impose additional comprehensive tariffs on top of the "reciprocal tariffs" that are about to be implemented.He also hinted that the auto tariffs may be announced before the equal tariffs begin."We may announce this in the next few days, and by April 2nd, it will be a tariff on equal rates."Analysis suggests that whether these tariffs will ultimately be implemented, and how they will be implemented, remains uncertain. After all, Donald Trump's volatility on the issue of tariffs since taking office is well-known. A White House official told the media earlier on Monday that tariffs targeting specific industries "may or may not happen."A官员 who wished to remain anonymous also stated, "No final decision has been made regarding the linkage between the industry and its counterparts."Currently, American economists and market participants普遍担忧 that under the Trump administration's escalating "tariff barrage," the US economy may experience a "Trump recession" or even "stagflation." JPMorgan Chief Global Economist Bruce Kasman expressed high concern about the US economy earlier this month, estimating the probability of a US economic downturn this year at around 40%, significantly higher than the 30% forecast at the beginning of the year.Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday that the recent stock market correction has been disrupted by the "uncertainty shock" brought about by the changing tariff policies, with investors worried that this could escalate into a slowdown or even a recession. However, the real crux of the matter is that the US may face the risk of stagflation, where growth slows while inflation remains high.Moodie's Chief Economist Mark Zandi Warns of High Risk of US Economic DeclineMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, warned that the US economy is at high risk of decline if President Trump implements tariffs on equal levels for three to five months.

I. Crude Oil Futures Market DynamicsThe market believes that the Asian economy and demand are expected to improve, and the instability in the Middle East still brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures May contract rose by $0.21 per barrel to $68.28, a month-on-month increase of +0.31%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures May contract rose by $0.16 per barrel to $72.16, a month-on-month increase of +0.22%. II. Macro Market DynamicsThe central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 93 billion yuan on March 21, with 180.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 87.7 billion yuan for the day. For the week, there was a total net injection of 378.5 billion yuan. In the next week, 1411.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the open market, and on next Wednesday, 3.5 billion yuan in central bank bill swaps will also mature.Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with senior executives from foreign companies visiting China, including Eli Lilly, Broadcom, and Mercedes-Benz. In the coming period, another dozen or so executives from multinational corporations will visit the Ministry of Commerce, with American companies accounting for about two-thirds.◎Ministry of Commerce Trade Negotiations Representative and Vice Minister Wang Shouwen met with Temasek Chairman Lim Boon Heng and his delegation. Both sides exchanged views on China's economic situation and Temasek's investment cooperation in China. Wang Shouwen stated that since 2025, China's economic operation has started smoothly, with a development trend towards new and better directions. The recently held National Two Sessions further released positive policy signals, boosting market confidence and expectations. At the same time, China will further expand its opening up, actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules, increase efforts to attract and stabilize investment, create a better business environment, and better support the development of foreign-funded enterprises.Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipse, and both sides exchanged views on topics such as BMW Group's cooperation with China and the EU's anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles. Wang Wentao pointed out that history has proven many times that tariff wars and trade wars only result in a lose-lose situation. The Chinese side hopes to work together with the European side to become a pillar of the multilateral trading system, injecting certainty and stability into the world.The President of Germany officially signed the amendment to the Basic Law, clearing the last hurdle for the German government's massive fiscal package financed through new debt. This huge fiscal plan will provide hundreds of billions of euros for defense, infrastructure, and climate investments.◎Regarding the US "tariff stick," France and other EU countries are calling on the EU to be prepared to take strong countermeasures. The report states that the EU could consider imposing restrictions on trade, services, intellectual property, and government procurement access.The White House stated that the UAE has committed to investing 1.4 trillion US dollars in the United States over the next decade, with a 25 billion US dollar investment plan focusing on energy infrastructure and data centers.The Bank of Russia announced it will maintain the key interest rate at 21% unchanged, while emphasizing that it will reconsider raising the key interest rate if necessary. Additionally, the Bank of Russia will extend the restrictions on transferring funds overseas for another 6 months until September 30.◎UK March CBI industrial orders balance -29, expected -30, previous -28; industrial output expectations balance -2, previous 8; industrial price expectations balance 22, expected 20, previous 19.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will discuss providing a new $20 billion loan to Argentina at an informal meeting next week. The IMF will also discuss setting up a four-year extended financing mechanism of about 15 billion Special Drawing Rights. Three, early morning dynamics of the plastic marketCrude oil surged, and overnight, the main domestic plastic futures contract showed a narrow upward trend:Plastic 2505 contract reported at 7694 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous trading day;PP2505 contract is quoted at 7273 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day;PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5050 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day. IV. Industry Chain DynamicsSurge of 1000 yuan/ton! Collective increase, companies frantically issuing price hike notices!On March 18, Jimei Jinghua Technology (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the increasingly tight supply of barite resources required for the production of sodium sulfide as a by-product of precipitated barium sulfate, our company has made every effort to secure and coordinate resources, hoping to absorb the various factors and cost increases resulting from the insufficient supply. After a very careful consideration of costs,It is decided that starting from March 18, 2025, our company will adjust the prices of some products as follows: the price of barium sulfate will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the original price.Recently, Hubei Qinba New Materials Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the significant increase in raw material prices recently, and with a continuing upward trend, the production cost of barium sulfate precipitate has been continuously rising, putting great pressure on the company's production and operation. Considering the actual situation of the company and adhering to the principle of mutual benefit,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our company's barium sulfate product will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the existing price basis.Guizhou Red Star Development Import and Export Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating:Starting from March 17, 2025, the company's barium sulfate series products will increase by 200 yuan per ton based on the current company's benchmark price.Shaanxi Fuhua Chemical Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the shortage of raw materials and the continuous rise in prices, leading to a constant increase in our production costs, the company has decided after research,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our barium sulfate product will be increased by 200 yuan per ton based on the original price. Guangxi Lianzhuang Technology Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the continuous rise in raw material prices, causing our barium sulfate production costs to remain high, after research and decision by our company,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our company's barium sulfate products will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the original price.Pingli County Andeli New Materials Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the shortage of raw material mineral resources and the persistently high production and operation costs, it has been decided by the company's price committee,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of barium sulfate will be increased by 200 yuan per ton.▶Shenzhou Jiaxin Chemical Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the severe environmental situation recently, large environmental protection investments, and the increase in the price of raw materials required, leading to an increase in product costs, based on the actual market demand,Our company will increase the price of barium sulfate by 200 yuan per ton from March 17, 2025.Guizhou Yufulong Technology Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the severe shortage and price increase of barite ore, the raw material required for the production of precipitated barium sulfate, leading to a significant increase in production costs, the company has decided: starting from March 17, 2025,Our company's barium sulfate product ex-factory price has been adjusted to 3300 yuan per ton.According to relevant data, the domestic barium sulfate price has been continuously rising for 1 year. In 2024, the domestic precipitated barium sulfate price was 2800 yuan/ton, and by March 2025, the domestic precipitated barium sulfate price had exceeded 4000 yuan/ton, currentlyThe increase has reached 1000 yuan/ton, with the increase amounting to 42%。According to industry analysts: the continuous rise in domestic barium sulfate prices is mainly due to an unusually tight supply of barite ore. In addition, the current market price of barium sulfate by-products has significantly declined, unable to provide more profit margins, causing many enterprises to hover on the brink of losses. Therefore, barium sulfate companies have no choice but to increase prices.The price increase of raw materials such as titanium dioxide and barium sulfate will inevitably bring cost pressures to downstream enterprises, such as paint companies, likeNippon, Changsha Huatai, Oriental Yuhongand many enterprises have already started to adjust their prices. V. This Week's Market ForecastPP：The continuous expansion and increase in supply contrast sharply with the weak response from the demand side. The imposition of additional tariffs overseas has suppressed downstream export orders, coupled with a slow increase in domestic demand, dragging down the mainstream market transactions. The market's bottom support lies in the relatively stable cost side and the ongoing benefits of maintenance, alleviating the downward pressure on the market. In the short term, the market will revolve around the confrontation and game between supply and demand and the cost side. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate weakly around 7250-7450 yuan/ton, with close attention to changes in additional tariffs overseas, progress in destocking social inventories, and the status of demand-side variables.PE：From the supply side, the Pucheng facility has entered a major maintenance state, while the rest of the facilities are mainly undergoing short-term shutdowns. There is still an expectation for the commissioning of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng Line 3 and the Shandong New Era LLDPE facility, so there is still pressure on supply. On the demand side, although the start-up rate of mulch film has increased, the pace has slowed down, and after the end of March, it will gradually enter the final stage, leading to a weakening of demand support. Therefore, overall, in the short term, the trend of polyethylene remains weak.PVC：Current supply remains at a high level, but domestic downstream demand is still mainly driven by rigid demand, with poor performance of forward orders, and no improvement expected in the supply and demand fundamentals. At present, the supply of raw material calcium carbide is tight, with signs of price increases, and the cost bottom support is firm, coupled with good export data for PVC in January-February. Meanwhile, driven by foreign trade delivery and terminal restocking demand, industry inventory continues to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of PVC continue to be in a tug-of-war, and it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable this week.ABS：Last week, ABS fell for 5 consecutive days, with prices about to break through the "9000" mark. In the Dongguan market, the king of low prices, Zhe Petrochemical/211, is currently quoted at 9100 yuan/ton, just 101 yuan away from an "8" thousand quote. This week, the trend of ABS market prices is weak, with some manufacturers' facilities resuming operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. However, terminal demand remains weak, the surplus situation continues, and price expectations are bearish.

As of the week ending March 13, Singapore's light distillate inventory stood at 15.592 million barrels, at a low level for the same period over the past three years. The main reason is the significant increase in net exports from Singapore. With the continuous rise in new energy penetration, gasoline demand in Southeast Asia has been squeezed. Overall, Asia still shows weakness, dragging down Singapore's gasoline prices. In the first half of March, domestic gasoline export arbitrage continued to be inverted and fell to the lowest level for the same period in nearly three years.According to Longzhong's calculations, the average monthly export arbitrage for gasoline in early to mid-March was -196 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 227 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 732%; both the domestic gasoline export arbitrage on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis have fallen, reaching the lowest level in nearly three years. We believe the main influencing factors are as follows.Figure 1 2023-2025 Domestic Gasoline Export Profit Trend (yuan/ton, calculated based on the FOB price in East China)Data source: Longzhong InformationTable 1 March Mid-Month Gasoline Export Arbitrage Trend Month-on-Month (yuan/ton)Data source: Longzhong InformationI. Singapore light distillate inventories increased on a week-on-week basis, but are at the lowest level for the same period in nearly three yearsAs of the week ending March 13, Singapore's light distillate inventories stood at 15.592 million barrels, at a low level for the same period over the past three years. This was mainly due to a significant increase in net exports from Singapore, driven by a surge in gasoline demand before the Holy Week in the Philippines. However, with the continuous rise in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Southeast Asia, Asian gasoline demand has been squeezed, showing an overall weak trend, and gasoline prices in Singapore have fallen.Figure 2 Singapore Light Distillate Stocks Trend (2023-2025) (thousand barrels)data source: Longzhong InformationTwo, both European and American gasoline inventories decreased month-over-month, but the support for the Singapore gasoline market is limited.As of the week ending March 13, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) gasoline inventories decreased by 8.5% to 1.51 million tons, mainly due to refineries gradually switching to summer gasoline production, with remaining winter inventories being sold off at reduced prices. This is part of the seasonal transition where refineries actively reduce their inventory. Market participants are relatively optimistic about the demand for summer gasoline.As of March 7, U.S. gasoline inventories stood at 241.101 million barrels, a decrease of 2.32% from the previous week, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2024. The main reason is the increase in gasoline restocking demand ahead of the summer travel peak, which has boosted U.S. gasoline consumption. At the same time, refinery operating rates in the Gulf of Mexico region were suppressed by planned maintenance, with an average operating rate of 87.2% in March, below the seasonal average. Supported by the recovery in gasoline consumption and low refinery operating rates, U.S. gasoline inventories have declined.Singapore light distillate inventories increased on a month-on-month basis, while gasoline inventories in Europe and America both declined. The expansion of trans-regional arbitrage between the US and Asia will stimulate an increase in the flow of gasoline resources from the Atlantic coast to Asia, but the rise in Suez Canal freight rates will suppress the outflow of gasoline resources. Under the continuous impact of increasing penetration of new energy, gasoline demand in Asia remains weak, dragging down Singapore's gasoline prices. In the first half of March, the monthly average duty-paid price of 92# gasoline in Singapore was 7,926 yuan/ton, a decrease of 439 yuan/ton or 5.25% compared to the previous month.Figure 3 ARA gasoline inventory trend (10,000 tons) 2023-2025Figure 4 U.S. Gasoline Inventory Trends (2023-2025) (billion barrels)Data source: Longzhong InformationThree, domestic gasoline demand is weak, but high costs limit the decline in pricesFigure 5 2023-2025 Singapore 92# Duty-Paid Price and Domestic 92# Export CIF Price TrendData source: Longzhong InformationIn March, with no holidays to support, domestic gasoline demand was weak, and the middle and lower reaches mostly replenished stocks based on rigid demand, maintaining low inventory operations. At the same time, due to the high cost of procurement, the arbitrage space for moving northern gasoline to the south was slim or even inverted, which curbed the decline in domestic gasoline prices. In the first half of March, the average monthly tax-inclusive price of domestic gasoline exports reaching the shore was 8123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212 yuan/ton from the previous month, a drop of 2.54%.The decline in Singapore's gasoline prices is much greater than that of domestic gasoline, leading to an inverted export arbitrage for domestic gasoline.Four, it is expected that the gasoline export arbitrage will continue to operate at a low level in late March.Table 2 March Late and Mid-early Period 2025 Gasoline Export Arbitrage Month-on-Month Trend (Yuan/Ton)Data source: Longzhong Information 

local timeOn March 20, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updated the Specially Designated Nationals list (SDN list), adding eight Chinese companies and one related individual to the list. For the first time, the U.S. government has targeted Chinese 'Teapot' refineries with sanctions, marking a new phase in Iran oil sanctions."Teapot refinery" refers to small and medium-sized private oil refining enterprises in China, mainly distributed in Shandong, Northeast, Shaanxi, and other regions, characterized by small scale, high flexibility, and low cost. Due to the crude early refining equipment, the atmospheric pot-type refining tanks they used were similar in shape to teapots, henceand got its name; later, although the technology was upgraded,"Teapot" as an industry label continues to this day. In additionUnlike the continuous procurement by large state-owned enterprises, teapot refineries purchase small and intermittent quantities of crude oil, also resembling teapots"Use in small quantities frequently."This sanction is sinceFebruary 4, 2025, since the release of Presidential National Security Memorandum No. 2 by US President Trump, the fourth round of sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales. The memorandum aims to "maximize pressure" on Iran. In the sanction announcement, the US government claimed that China's "teapot" refineries purchased and refined Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This is the first time the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese independent refineries, with the aim of cutting off channels for Iranian oil exports and further compressing its economic living space.In addition to targeting buyers, the sanctions also targeted those responsible for transporting Iranian oil."Shadow Fleet". The US side accused multiple Chinese companies and associated vessels of being involved in the transportation of Iranian oil, leading to their inclusion on the SDN list.The specific entities listed include:This time the US onThe sanctions on the "teapot" refinery have mainly resulted in short-term impacts on our country's energy and chemical products and their supply chain, primarily through supply chain disruptions and increased costs.​as ofIn 2024, the production capacity of Shandong's local refineries reaches 70% of the national private refining capacity, and teapot refineries account for more than 20% of China's total crude oil processing.Due to the teapot refineries being highly dependent on Iran (Iranian crude oil accounts for13% of low-cost crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Russia, thus sanctions will lead to restrictions on the import channels for Iranian crude oil, and a sharp increase in transshipment costs, which may force refineries to turn to other sanctioned countries like Russia and Venezuela, but these alternative channels also face transportation and settlement obstacles, with the worst-case scenario being that teapot refineries are forced to halt production.and the shutdown or reduction of production at the teapot refineries will directly decrease the output of refined products such as diesel and gasoline. previously, four local refineries (with a total capacity320,000 barrels/day) The shutdown due to policy pressure has led to a 5% weekly jump in the wholesale price of diesel in East China. After the intensification of sanctions, the regional supply gap may further expand, triggering a chain reaction in energy prices.Once the supply of raw materials (such as naphtha, mixed aromatics) for midstream chemical industry products like plastics and chemical fibers becomes tight, it may affect the production of chemicals, leading to the risk of supply chain disruption being transmitted to the terminal manufacturing sector.In the medium to long term, industry consolidation is bound to accelerate.——Hengli Petrochemical and other giants have initiated acquisitions of shut-down refineries; Shandong Province plans to promote transformation through a policy of "replacing 1 ton of old capacity with 0.8 tons of high-end chemical capacity." In the future, the number of independent refineries may decrease sharply from 65 to less than 20, and the market share of the top 5 companies will exceed 60%.Due to the plastic industry's high dependence on international crude oil and natural gas supplies, sanctions and tariff policies may disrupt the procurement rhythm of raw materials. Enterprises need to increase inventory to cope with the risk of supply interruptions, leading to increased capital occupation pressure. In the long term, this may force the industry towards higher-end and greener transformation. Enterprises need to respond to challenges through technological upgrades, diversification of the supply chain, and market adjustments, while national-level energy strategy adjustments (such as the RMB settlement system, new energy layout) will also become key variables. author: Gao Xing,special plastic perspectivesenior market analysis expert

I. Overnight Futures Market DynamicsThe United States continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract for April rose by $1.10 per barrel to $68.26, up 1.64% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for May increased by $1.22 per barrel to $72.00, up 1.72% month-over-month.Market forecast: Oil prices surged with a long bullish candle on Thursday evening, rising nearly 3% from the intraday low.The US has announced new sanctions related to Iran, targeting an independent refinery in Asia and the vessels supplying crude oil to these refineries. A comprehensive assessment of the fourth round of US sanctions on Iran suggests that this round of sanctions may bring a risk premium of 3-5 dollars. How long oil prices can maintain a strong performance subsequently will depend on the resource adjustment and recovery capabilities at the supply level of the crude oil market. Under the impetus of sudden news, oil prices remain highly volatile. II. Macro Market DynamicsChina's LPR for March was released, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the over-5-year LPR at 3.6%, remaining unchanged for 5 consecutive months, in line with expectations. Industry experts generally believe that looking ahead, policy-driven interest rate cuts will still need to be made on a case-by-case basis, and structural interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are expected to be prioritized, with the timing of LPR cuts possibly being delayed.The National Bureau of Statistics released data, in February, excluding students, the unemployment rate for urban 16-24 year old labor force was 16.9%, the unemployment rate for 25-29 year old labor force was 7.3%, and the unemployment rate for 30-59 year old labor force was 4.3%.The EU has postponed its plan to impose a 50% tariff on American whiskey until mid-April, aligning with broader countermeasures against US steel and aluminum tariffs. The whiskey tariff was originally scheduled to take effect on April 1.The Swiss National Bank lowered the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, marking the lowest interest rate since September 2022, and it is the fifth consecutive rate cut, in line with expectations. The Swiss National Bank stated that it remains willing to act in the foreign exchange market if necessary.According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), U.S. existing home sales increased by 4.2% in February, reaching an annual rate of 4.26 million units, exceeding market expectations. The median sale price rose 3.8% year-over-year to $398,400, setting a record high for the period.◎The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 2,000 to 223,000, slightly below market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims for the previous week was 1.892 million, slightly above expectations.◎The UK's unemployment rate in February was 4.65%, with the previous value at 4.6%. The ILO unemployment rate for the three months to January was 4.4%, meeting the expectation of 4.4%, and the previous value was also 4.4%. Three, early morning dynamics of the plastic marketCrude oil surged, and the main domestic plastic futures contract showed a volatile trend overnight:Plastic 2505 contract is quoted at 7748 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day;PP2505 contract is quoted at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the previous trading day;The PVC2505 contract was quoted at 5046 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.08% from the previous trading day. IV. Market ForecastPP：On the supply side, the number of PP units planned to resume operations next week is limited, and there are plans for maintenance shutdowns of PP units with a capacity of about 1.1 million tons, such as Maoming Petrochemical and Lankang Petrochemical. The impact of these shutdowns may increase, potentially providing some support to the PP market. On the demand side, with rising temperatures, daily travel by residents is expected to increase, and seasonal consumption combined with favorable policies may boost demand for plastic products in areas such as food and daily necessities. Additionally, the start of construction projects may lead to an increase in orders for the downstream plastic weaving industry. Under the combined influence of these factors, it is expected that the polypropylene market will see an upward trend next week.PE：On the supply side, although there are plans for maintenance shutdowns of PE plants such as Zhongan United and Wanhua Chemical, involving around 650,000 tons of capacity, there are also plans for resumption of operations at PE plants like Maoming Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical, and Shanghai Jinfen, involving around 1.4 million tons of capacity. It is expected that the supply pressure in the market may increase. On the demand side, overall terminal demand may rise steadily, but given the current lack of new orders leading to downstream factories purchasing raw material PE on an as-needed basis, it may be difficult to provide significant momentum to the PE market. Under the combined influence, it is expected that the polypropylene market will consolidate within a range next week.PVC：PVC futures have been consolidating at low levels, unable to provide a good guide for the spot market. However, the advantage of low futures prices is relatively obvious, even so, the trading in the spot market remains mediocre, with downstream players cautiously observing, and overall, the supply in the spot market is still ample. Although both the futures and spot markets showed narrow consolidation during the week, the upstream ex-factory prices remained stable. Even if prices fall to a low level and continue to decline, it may not necessarily lead to better trading, coupled with support from the cost side. However, the fundamental factors that PVC provides for price guidance are few. In the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to consolidate at low levels.ABS：It is expected that the ABS market price trend will be weak next week. Some manufacturers will start up their facilities, which is expected to result in a slight increase in production. However, terminal demand continues to be weak, and the situation of oversupply remains, leading to a bearish price expectation.

Policy benefits driving effectiveness have slowed down, tariff policies have intensified, supply has gradually increased, and demand is weak, with more bearish factors in the market. Recently, PP/PE prices continue to mainly adjust downward, with a decline of 50 yuan per ton.Yesterday, international oil prices slightly increased, as concerns over a global economic slowdown, trade worries, and progress in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine offset the impact of instability in the Middle East on the supply side. By the close of trading, U.S. oil closed at $67.16 per barrel, with a gain of 0.39%; Brent oil closed at $70.78 per barrel, with a gain of 0.31%. The current economic uncertainty has overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions on the oil market. The latest warning from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that the tariff policies of the Trump administration may drag down the economic growth of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, thereby affecting global energy demand. Therefore, recent oil price increases have been weak, and their influence on the plastic market is not strong. In terms of futures, PP/PE futures opened lower today but rose later, falling again towards the end. By the close, PP futures showed an increase, while PE futures experienced a slight decline, with mixed gains and losses, providing limited guidance to the spot plastic market. Regarding petrochemicals, as of March 20th, the inventory of the two major oil companies for plastics was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 1.88%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. The low petrochemical inventory temporarily benefits the spot plastic quotations. Currently, the guidance for the plastic market is weak, and weak demand is putting pressure on spot plastic quotations, leading to a slight decline in PP/PE prices.From the market quotation, PP prices have slightly declined. The mainstream price for drawing is 7200-7490 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the drawing price is 7200-7300 yuan/ton, with regional quotations gradually probing 40-50 yuan/ton lower. In the East China region, the drawing price is 7260-7420 yuan/ton, with low-end quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the drawing price is 7350-7490 yuan/ton, with some quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the drawing price is 7220-7400 yuan/ton, with low-end quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton.The PE market quotations slightly declined, with the current mainstream price of linear products at 7850-8330 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the price of linear products is 7850-7920 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50-70 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the price of linear products is 7850-7980 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 20-100 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of linear products is 7950-8330 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 20-80 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the price of linear products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The high-pressure prices have also gradually declined, with the mainstream quotation at 9420-10650 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9420-9450 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 60-100 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9500-10650 yuan/ton, and the lower-end quotations have slightly decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the price of drawing products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50 yuan/ton.On the supply and demand side, there is a possibility of new production from facilities such as Shandong New Era and Inner Mongolia Baofeng No.3, which puts some pressure on supply. Downstream demand is weak, with limited new orders and a low willingness to replenish inventory. For PP, the market demand is characterized by limited order follow-up, with most purchases being for immediate needs to maintain production. Currently, there are no new capacity expansions, and the market pressure is alleviated by the positive impact of maintenance activities.In summary, the effectiveness of policy benefits is slowing down, tariff policies are intensifying, supply is gradually increasing, and demand is weak. There are more negative factors in the market. Recently, PP/PE prices continue to mainly adjust downward, with a decline of 50 yuan per ton.